Babaryka: Sanctions cannot be lifted from enterprises and people involved in the war. Release political prisoners at the cost of killing Ukrainians?
It turned out that the politician's position radically differs from Maria Kalesnikava's approach.
Viktar Babaryka. Photo: Nasha Niva
Reflecting on sanctions against Belarus in the new episode of "TOK", Viktar Babaryka calls for a sober assessment of the positions and real capabilities of the parties.
"One needs to understand exactly which package of sanctions is being discussed," he notes.
The politician reminds that most sanctions against Belarus "are a consequence of the war".
"Accordingly, when we deal with sanctions, we must deal with who started these discussions. How can one imagine Europe, which understands that sanctions were imposed against both Russia and Belarus — and we will lift sanctions from Belarus, but will not lift sanctions from Russia? Or vice versa. It doesn't work that way. This is a package. They were introduced together, with different restrictions, but in principle for the same thing."
According to Babaryka, the "military package" of sanctions cannot be considered in isolation from the measures applied against Russia.
On the other hand, it is important to understand what steps Belarus can take independently to achieve a softening of pressure. When it comes to holding free elections, the politician believes that little depends on official Minsk:
"They say, let's discuss lifting sanctions in exchange for Belarus's independence. That is, for holding free elections in Belarus. Question: who can make a decision about free elections in Belarus? Are you kidding? Belarus itself? Well, soberly speaking... I think European politicians understand this perfectly well. That is, you have to talk to someone who can really make decisions."
As for the release of political prisoners, Babaryka sees another problem: "There are no questions with that. Because you released one today, and tomorrow you bred new ones again."
The politician explains: "The question being discussed is precisely what the current Belarusian authorities can do separately from Russia? And then Europe comes and says: what can you do? You can do a very limited number of things. Release political prisoners? Yes. Reduce repression? Yes. Prevent new ones from appearing? Yes. That's all.
Now Europe's question is: what should we do? Lift military sanctions? How so? So, you will continue to kill people? For you to, perhaps, release someone from [political prisoners]. But at what cost! I understand it sounds cynical, but you will continue to kill Ukrainians. "Well, we'll release a couple of thousand from Belarusian prisons. And we'll drive them back to Ukraine or somewhere else."
Babaryka emphasizes: both Europe and official Minsk are severely limited in their maneuver regarding the lifting of sanctions.
"I consider it unequivocally correct: sanctions cannot be lifted from enterprises and people involved in the production or support of the war. By definition, they cannot, because human lives are at stake," the politician is convinced.
At the same time, he admits that the set of sanctions may be revised. Their "calibration, more precise tuning" is possible, in order to "reduce the burden or reduce the negative consequences of sanctions for civil society, for ordinary people in Belarus."
However, as the politician notes, "this is not very acceptable to Belarusian society."
Among such measures could be European educational programs or an increase in visa issuance. But even here, the politician doubts their success:
"But what do these authorities say? Any student leaving Belarus must sign a paper. And what's more, the Minister of Education, if I understand correctly, bears personal responsibility for the return of that student. So I want to know, are there many such people [willing]? Europe will now open all its universities and say 'welcome', but no one from Belarus will go."
According to Babaryka, the situation is similar with visas:
"The number of visas currently issued by European consulates is actually not small. Much larger than it used to be. But very few people travel. Because you know: if you leave, it's not certain you'll return. And if you do return, it's unclear where you'll return to."
"That is, all these things are so complicated from the point of view, on the one hand, of the need to calibrate and precisely adjust, and on the other hand, the inability to negotiate with a party that cannot make decisions. This is a very complex issue," Babaryka concludes.
It should be noted that Viktar Babaryka's expressed position differs from what Maria Kalesnikava advocates. In her speeches, she does not distinguish between the sanctions imposed on Lukashenka for complicity in the war and those that resulted from election falsifications and repression within Belarus.
"Sanctions, okay, sanctions... But people are more important. The conditional desire not to lift restrictions or the desire for some dialogue cannot be equated with human life, and we are now talking specifically about the lives of people, the isolation and pressure under which almost 9 million Belarusians continue to live. (...)
Sanctions are introduced to be lifted someday, and if sanctions hit ordinary people and businesses, there is nothing good in that," she noted in a conversation with Marina Zolatava.