Any attempts to normalize relations with Lukashenka will run into one big problem
At another meeting with Lukashenka on March 19, John Cole raised the issue of stopping new arrests: they release 10 people, and then arrest 10 more. But this is not the only issue that will arise when attempting to normalize relations with Lukashenka.
John Cole and Alexander Lukashenka, March 19, 2026. Photo: Belarusian Presidential Press Service via AP
Release the old ones — don't imprison new ones
Cole's question is important and logical, because otherwise the situation could turn into a hostage-trading business.
Without stopping the criminal political persecution within the country, the number of political prisoners in Belarus will not be zero; the process could become endless.
However, at the current pace, one can indeed imagine a situation where, for example, by the end of 2026, there will be no political prisoners left in Belarus. Or at least their number will be measured in single digits, not hundreds.
Zero political prisoners does not equal zero repression
Nevertheless, even zero political prisoners will not mean a true thaw with full amnesty. Under Lukashenka, a return to the conditional year 2019 is absolutely impossible. There can be no independent media, NGOs, opposition, or other signs of democracy.
However, at least from the US side, new red lines are now emerging, the essence of which is not to spoil the lives of neighbors and not to conduct mass repression.
Perhaps, over time, the Lukashenka regime may indeed be capable of adhering to such conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and normalization of relations. But on this track, a problem will arise anyway — the next elections.
Holding honest elections is a 100% guarantee of collapse for the regime. Therefore, there will be no real elections under him, and everyone understands this: from people within the system to Americans.
Alexander Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin on February 26, 2026. Photo: AP
And this is the problem that anyone who is now ready to normalize relations with official Minsk must face.
The question of holding honest elections (read: Lukashenka's departure from power) is something the regime is not ready to discuss.
New elections, old problems
If any country normalizes relations with the Lukashenka regime, then in a few years — in 2030 — they will face this dilemma: how to build relations with the head of a country who continues to hold power solely through falsification, destruction of the opposition, and repression.
It turns out that in such a vein, the attitude towards Belarus could follow the Turkmen, Tajik, or Azerbaijani scenario, where an authoritarian leader is in power, and free media and opposition are absent or very limited. There are a certain number of political prisoners in the country, but the leaders are not isolated from the civilized world.
Putin, Lukashenka, Rahmon, Tokayev, and Japarov. Photo: Alexander Kazakov Sputnik Kremlin Pool Photo / AP
And here, Lukashenka's main difference is that he not only usurped power, squeezed out the media, and completely destroyed the opposition. His actions also prevent neighboring EU countries from living peacefully, and in 2022, he even provided the country's territory for the attack on Ukraine.
How to normalize relations with such a background is a question that has no simple answers and will inevitably arise with renewed force immediately after the next imitation of elections.