How the Russian Threat Made Germany Europe's Leading Military Power
Germany is undertaking its most radical military reform since World War II, preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia in 2029. After decades of pacifist policies and budget cuts, Berlin is assuming the role of Europe's main military power, while simultaneously trying to achieve "operational independence" from an unpredictable Washington, writes the BBC.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (center) and Carsten Breuer (left), June 28, 2025. Photo: Michael Kappeler / DPA via AP, Pool
General Carsten Breuer lives in a constant state of urgency. He is the head of Germany's armed forces, the most influential and possibly most important military officer in Europe.
He is tasked with rapidly building up Germany's military might and transforming the country into the most powerful fighting force on the continent.
By 2029, he believes, Russia will be capable of attacking NATO territory — by then, efforts to strengthen the army will bear fruit: investments in weaponry and continuous recruitment of new troops.
"I have never encountered such a dangerous and urgent situation as now," he told the BBC at a military base in Münster, near the Dutch border.
"What we see, what we face, is a threat from Russia. We clearly see that Russia is building up its military power to a level almost twice what it had before the war against Ukraine... In 2029, Russia will be able to wage a major war against NATO. And as a soldier, I must say: 'Okay, we must be ready for this'."
Breuer joined the army of then-West Germany at 19, in 1984. He speaks softly and thoughtfully. He lacks the arrogance sometimes characteristic of military officers, there is no showy machismo — yet he strives to transform the German army so that it finds itself at the center of a new power map on the continent.
Under his command, Germany's armed forces are rapidly growing in both number and strength. In 2029, Germany is expected to spend 162 billion euros on the army (in 2025, it spent 95 billion). Public opinion polls show high support for such a military buildup.
Until recently, a rearmament program of this scale would have caused concern among Germany's neighbors, stirring the ghosts of Europe's dark past. In the 20th century, Germany started one of the most destructive wars in human history, affecting most of the continent and claiming millions of lives.
In an attempt to atone for the horrors of the past, Germany severely limited its army for many years. Can it now realize its ambitions and become Europe's leading military power? And if it succeeds, how will it act as the continent's "strong arm"?
How Germany's Position Changed After World War II
To clearly see how Germany's position in Europe has changed, one should travel to Lithuania, where Germany has a permanent military presence for the first time since the Nazi occupation.
About 1,200 German soldiers are stationed in Lithuania. By the end of next year, their number will grow to almost 5,000. BBC correspondents observed Panzerbrigade 45 (45th Armored Brigade) conducting live-fire exercises just a few miles from the border with Belarus.
They simulated an invasion from the east.
Here, the terrain is flat and wooded. There are few natural obstacles — no mountain ranges, no impassable river valleys. The region is very vulnerable to invasion.
In September 1812, Napoleon's army marched through these lands all the way to the Russian capital. Hitler's troops reached Moscow very quickly, by September 1941. Then they were pushed back by Soviet forces, and armies moved back and forth for a long time across this open, undefended plain.
If geography is destiny, then the fate of this region in military conflicts has been shaped by the Great European Plain.
"I think we are here to fulfill the expectations of our neighbors," Lieutenant Colonel Sebastian Hagen, commander of the armored brigade, told the BBC. "Our Chancellor [Friedrich Merz] announced that we are creating the most powerful army in Europe. And, I think, this corresponds to Germany's role given our economic strength, as well as our role in Europe. And, of course, we are not doing this alone — we are doing it within NATO and the European Union."
German military personnel emphasize in conversations that this time Germany acts not as an invader and occupier, but as a welcome and valuable ally. This democratic Germany seeks not domination, but cooperation.
At the peak of the Cold War, Germany had over half a million troops — but always within NATO and under US control. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Germany, like much of Europe, more than halved its armed forces.
Between 2007 and 2017, Germany — Europe's most populous country and certainly its strongest economy — typically spent only about 1.2% of its GDP on defense. This shows how low defense and security ranked in national priorities — and at the same time testifies to the complacency into which much of Europe had fallen. Germany's new goal is to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP.
Other European countries have also begun re-evaluating their military priorities since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The UK last year pledged to reach 5% of GDP by 2035, and France aims for 3.5%.
However, even these expenditures remain lower than Russian military spending: in 2024, they were estimated at 7.1% of GDP.
Cultural Revolution
The rearmament on the scale currently being undertaken by Germany required serious changes in the perception of defense and the place of the armed forces in German society.
After Germany's surrender, Allied leaders agreed at the Potsdam Conference on the demilitarization of Germany. West Germany accepted this, attempting to atone for the evil caused, and was ready to allow the United States to take the lead role in its defense.
This era has ended. In 2025, the German parliament voted to amend the country's constitution to remove strict limits on borrowing for the defense budget.
People outside Germany often find it difficult to understand how important this is. But in this country, history is an invisible guest at every table. Hyperinflation, which destroyed the economy in the 1920s and helped bring the Nazis to power, is still remembered here. Germany is particularly sensitive to debt and an unstable currency. But now it has nonetheless allowed defense spending to exceed strict limits.
"I would say it was a cultural revolution," says Sophia Besch, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, a Washington think tank. "Russia's invasion of Ukraine really changed Germany's approach to defense issues."
This move was almost certainly triggered by US Vice President J.D. Vance's speech at last year's Munich Security Conference, delivered weeks after Donald Trump's inauguration, in which he made it clear to European allies that the US would no longer be the guarantor of European security.
At the same time, a series of leaked messages revealed a culture of contempt for European allies that prevailed in the White House under Trump. "I completely share your disgust for European freeloaders," Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told his colleagues, adding: "PATHETIC."
It is said that this convinced German Chancellor Friedrich Merz that European states must strive for "operational independence" from the US within NATO.
"Practically the entire foundation of Germany's post-war order was built around the transatlantic alliance," says journalist and author John Kampfner. "It relied on presumed US support in defense, security, and politics. This, perhaps, could be called naive... But this sense of security was shattered by a second Trump administration."
In his opinion, this destabilized Germans more than British or French citizens.
"The British and French citizens have a flag to rally around, a sense of nation and history. For post-war Germany, everything started from a clean slate. And it was based on order, on rules, for all their imperfections. In many ways, this was also a fundamental principle of German foreign policy. And now they see war in the east, and in the west there is no longer a friend and ally, a reliable patron they counted on. Therefore, the mood is gloomy, as it is throughout Europe. And there is a feeling that it's time to reconsider everything," Kampfner explains.
"We can call it a wake-up call," says Breuer. "This time we could not and did not want to hit the 'snooze' button again... it was a huge step for Germany, certainly a huge step for German society."
According to him, Germany currently has 182,000 soldiers. He wants to increase this number by 20,000 within a year and by 60,000 within a decade. In addition, this professional army will be supplemented by a reserve of 200,000 people.
He launched a recruitment campaign and hopes to attract thousands of young people to the army, and if the required number is not met, Breuer will eventually insist on the return of compulsory military service. Given public support for these measures, he will almost certainly achieve his goal.
The German Ministry of Defense reports that in February, 16,100 people applied for service — 20% more than in February last year. 5,300 recruits joined the service, 14% more than in 2025.
Operational Independence
Germany is reducing its dependence on the US, including by increasing its own ammunition production. The lifting of borrowing limits for defense spending has encouraged many German companies to shift from civilian to military production. Germany, like much of Europe, has long been heavily dependent on American arms manufacturers — in fighter jets, missile systems, and armored vehicles. Now Germany seeks to be less dependent on American ammunition and pursues an unofficial policy of "buying German where possible."
In the pursuit of "operational independence," as Merz spoke of, Europe will need to achieve the capabilities that currently only the US possesses.
"We have compiled a clear list of priorities for Germany," says Breuer. "We need ISR [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] capabilities; we need drones. We need the ability to conduct high-precision strikes at great depth. Space capabilities should also be on this list. These are the most urgent needs. But, as I said, we have a list of priorities, we are working on it and have already made significant progress."
The BBC asked him if he was ready to become the first general since 1945 to lead the German army during a war in Europe.
"It's not about war," he replied.
"What I am doing is preparing Germany to be able to defend itself by building up defensive capabilities. This is deterrence. We will deter the threat from Russia," Breuer explains.
In other words, to prevent war, one must prepare for war.
But will there be "operational independence"? Can Europe wage a major war without the US?
The US Department of Defense is America's largest employer. Its spending is expected to be $961.6 billion this year, significantly exceeding even Germany's new defense spending and the planned increases for Britain and France.
"If you look at it from a money perspective, there is no other option: Germany will shape the future of European defense and security," says Sophia Besch. "But I doubt there is one country in Europe capable of replacing the US. It's very tempting to say: 'Can Germany or France take on this role in the future?', but Europeans interact differently. We always strive for compromise. Besides, there's a clear trust issue. The role the US has played in European defense has been shaped over decades, and trust has also been built over decades — and filling that void overnight will be difficult."
Trust in the US is waning. In 2024, before Trump's re-election, 74% of Germans surveyed by the Pew Research Center said they were confident in the relationship between the two countries. But already in 2025, only 27% of Germans considered relations with the US good, while 73% rated them as bad.
Indispensable Country?
Perhaps, the change in Germany's role in Europe is clearly shown by its relations with its neighbors.
Polls show that Lithuanians view the German military presence in the country positively.
In 2011, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski came to Berlin and delivered a speech that, given the memory of the Nazi occupation of Poland, surprised many German diplomats in the hall.
He called on Germany to take on the role of European leader. At that time, the Eurozone was in crisis, and the role Sikorski urged Germany to take was more economic than military. But it was a landmark moment.
"I fear German power less than I am beginning to fear German passivity," he said. And he called Germany an "indispensable country" in Europe.
German rearmament is "good news for Poland, for Europe, and for NATO," believes retired Polish General Andrzej Fałkowski, former deputy chief of the Polish armed forces. He held high positions at NATO headquarters for 12 years.
"We know how militaristic they [the Germans] were, and we know the geostrategic position of my country," he told me. "We have always been sandwiched between two superpowers, like a sandwich. After 1989, Germany began to become a 'freeloader' [in terms of defense spending]. They preferred to spend money on economic and social issues — education and so on — because they had a kind of buffer in the east, and we, the Poles, were that buffer. But now Germany is fourth in the world in defense spending. As Europe's strongest economy, they must spend more, and for Poland and for Europe, this can only be good news."
At the end of the interview, the BBC asked Breuer: "You are probably the most influential and most important military officer in Europe. Do you feel that burden?"
"I think I feel the responsibility every day," he replied, "the responsibility for the forces I command here in Germany. I am one of Germany's 182,000 soldiers, and I feel the responsibility of a leader. I am very happy to be part of this leadership team because together we will cope with this task. Absolutely."
When the NATO alliance was created, it was said that its task was to "keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down." That era is over. Eight decades have passed, and Germany is far from being "down"; it has returned, rearmed, and is at the center of Europe's new power map.