European leaders gather for a summit in Armenia. How will Moscow react?
How did a country so embedded in Russia's orbit become the host for most European leaders?
Nikol Pashinyan and Ursula von der Leyen. Photo: Thierry Monasse/Getty Images
European leaders are gathering for two unprecedented summits in Armenia, long considered Russia's closest ally in the South Caucasus, writes the BBC.
The symbolism of this event for a country with a population of less than three million people can hardly be overstated: Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, established by Russian President Vladimir Putin, and a Russian military base is located on Armenian territory.
On Monday, more than 30 European leaders and the Prime Minister of Canada will participate in the European Political Community (EPC) summit, which will be held in Yerevan.
On Tuesday, the first-ever bilateral EU-Armenia summit will take place, involving European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa.
Armenia is largely dependent on Russia for energy resources. It purchases Russian gas at preferential prices — Putin specifically mentioned this during Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's visit to Moscow on April 1.
He noted that Russia sells gas to Armenia at a price of 177.5 dollars per 1000 cubic meters, while in Europe it costs 600 dollars. "The difference is great, it is significant," said the Russian president.
How did a country so embedded in Russia's orbit become the host for most European leaders?
The turning point was the 2023 war between Armenia and neighboring Azerbaijan.
At that time, Azerbaijan launched a lightning-fast military operation aimed at completing the capture of Nagorno-Karabakh, expelling more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians from there. Russia, which had peacekeepers on the ground, remained on the sidelines.
Earlier, Azerbaijani invasions into Armenian territory also went unanswered by the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
"We realized that the existing security architecture is not working," Sargis Khandanyan, chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations of the National Assembly of Armenia, told the BBC.
A year earlier, the EU brokered a border recognition agreement, under which it deployed a civilian observation mission.
"The physical presence of the European Union changed the perception of our citizens," said Khandanyan. "We realized that there is a demand among the population for closer relations with the EU," he adds.
In March 2025, the Armenian parliament adopted a law to begin the process of EU accession.
The peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan also accelerated. In August, the leaders of the two countries signed a historic agreement at the White House aimed at ending years of conflict.
There, they also announced the launch of the "Trump Route" for international peace and prosperity — a major transport corridor that will run along Armenia's border with Iran and connect the region with European markets.
However, the peace process between the two neighboring countries remains fragile, and Europe's rapprochement with Armenia has incurred diplomatic costs for it.
Last week, the Azerbaijani parliament voted to suspend relations with the European Parliament over a resolution by MEPs calling for the right of return for Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh who fled in 2023, as well as the release of Armenian prisoners held by Baku.
Meanwhile, Moscow watches Armenia's increasingly warm relations with the EU with barely concealed irritation.
During a meeting in the Kremlin, Putin smiled as Pashinyan boasted about freedoms in his country.
"Social networks in Armenia are 100% free, without any restrictions," he told the Russian leader. In Russia, all major Western platforms are blocked.
However, Putin reminded Pashinyan that his desire to join the EU is incompatible with membership in the Eurasian Economic Union.
"It is impossible to be simultaneously in a customs union with the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union," said the Russian president, adding that it is "simply impossible by definition."
Just days before the EPC summit, Russia imposed a ban on the import of Armenian mineral water.
"This is a typical example of how hybrid threats operate," says Artur Papyan from CyberHUB-AM, an organization that monitors Armenia's information space.
He noted that pro-European statements by high-ranking officials or visits to Brussels were often followed by decisions to detain Armenian trucks at the Georgian-Russian border, as well as threats from hackers of attacks on government websites.
Last month, the EU approved a new civilian mission in Armenia for the next two years, designed to counter Russian disinformation, cyberattacks, and illicit financial flows, particularly ahead of Armenia's parliamentary elections in June.
It is modeled on a similar EU mission in Moldova, which appeared before the 2025 elections, which resulted in pro-European forces in Chișinău retaining power.
"I have studied these cases, especially cases in Moldova and Romania, as well as in Ukraine," said Papyan. "I see that common tactics and technological processes are emerging here."
In January, his team recorded a massive attack on WhatsApp, which, according to estimates, compromised several hundred thousand accounts. According to him, this messenger is widely used by ministers and government officials.
In a separate operation, hackers created a fake account in the Signal app, impersonating EU Ambassador to Armenia Vassilis Maragos, and invited NGO leaders to a fake conference on relations between Armenia and the EU.
The registration link looked plausible. Even experienced civil society organization employees fell for the trick. When the source of the attack was traced, IP addresses pointed to the Russian city of Zelenograd, located northwest of Moscow.
Ahead of the summits in Yerevan, Papyan reported that in just one morning he counted six or seven bursts of activity on Telegram promoting the same idea: that these events mark a point of no return for Armenia and that Russia will punish the country for hosting them.
"Armenia's democratic institutions are functioning and have made real progress, but they are under pressure," said Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset, who is participating in the summits.
His main concerns ahead of Armenia's June elections were foreign interference, disinformation, and political polarization online.
According to him, Armenia has some legal tools to counter these threats, but, as in many other countries, "they are not yet fully commensurate with the scale and complexity of the threat."
While European leaders head to Yerevan with promises of civilian missions and visa liberalization in the next two years, no concrete deadlines for EU accession, defense commitments, or plans to replace Russian gas have yet been defined.
Without such firm commitments, Armenia's "balancing act" between Russia and the West is far from over.