Europe has almost weaned itself off Russian gas, but winter again threatens the EU with an energy crisis
Just last winter, it seemed that the European Union had finally gotten off the Russian gas hook and learned to live in a new reality without energy crises. America and Norway replaced Russia as the main supplier of natural gas. Winter 2026-2027 promised low prices, a resurgence in demand, and a recovery for European industry. But then a new problem arose, writes the BBC Russian Service.
Liquefied natural gas terminal in Klaipėda, Lithuania. Photo: Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Traditionally, gas prices drop in summer, and Europe stocks up for winter. Usually, by the end of October, the European Union accumulates about 100 billion cubic meters of gas in underground storage facilities, which is equivalent to roughly half of winter demand and covers about 25-30% of the EU's needs during the heating season, as storage facilities are not depleted 100%, and some gas remains in them until spring.
But winter is very close now, and gas prices haven't dropped. Reserves in storage facilities are at a record low for early August — only about 60%, or slightly less than 60 billion cubic meters. Experts are confident that the EU-recommended level of 90% full by November 1st, or at the very latest December 1st, is now unattainable, and if the winter turns out to be severe, prices will skyrocket and Europe will plunge into a new energy crisis.
Kremlin special representative Kirill Dmitriev is gloating about this.
"The EU faces the threat of an energy crisis through its own fault," he wrote, attaching a chart of storage fill levels to his tweet and a GIF of Jon Snow from "Game of Thrones," where instead of "winter is coming," he captioned it "bills are coming," likely referring to gas and electricity bills for European consumers.
However, Russia has nothing to do with this crisis. The main reason is the US and Israel's war with Iran.
Unusual Summer
"Summers are usually calm. But not this summer," explains Anne-Sophie Corbeau, an energy expert at Columbia University, regarding the problem with replenishing gas reserves in Europe.
"In the best case, storage facilities will be 70-80% full by the heating season. If the winter is mild, no big deal," she said. "But if it's cold, cloudy, and windless, difficulties will begin."
The pace of reserve replenishment is significantly behind not only the pace of recent years, when the EU began requiring member states to fill storage facilities to 90% in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine. They are now even lower than in the relatively good five-year period from 2016 to 2021, according to calculations by the Bruegel research center.
All because last winter, buyers decided that Europe had learned to live without Russian gas and that only low prices lay ahead.
And indeed, in January 2026, despite a harsh winter and low reserves, gas cost roughly the same as in January 2025 — 30-35 euros per megawatt-hour. This is higher than the pre-war 20 euros, but quite affordable for European consumers.
And they had every chance to expect gas prices to fall — because while earlier prices didn't rise only due to full storage and a warm winter, last winter they didn't fall only due to depleted reserves and cold weather.
In addition, the two main global producers of liquefied gas — the US and Qatar — promised to increase supplies to the world market. Qatar was supposed to commission a new train of its mega-plant in Ras Laffan at the end of this year, and pre-war prices reflected the expectation of a gas surplus on the market.
Therefore, Europeans were in no hurry to fill underground storage facilities for the next winter, counting on lower prices in the summer. But Donald Trump, by starting the war in the Middle East, ordered otherwise.
Gas Shortage
With the start of bombing in Iran in early March, gas prices in Europe rose to approximately 50 euros, following oil prices. Iranian retaliatory strikes destroyed 17% of the capacity of the Ras Laffan complex, which produces 20% of all liquefied gas in the world.
After that came a brief truce, during which oil prices fell, but gas prices barely did. It now costs 60 euros per megawatt-hour in Europe.
"Unlike the oil market, there is no strategic reserve in the gas market," explains Anne-Sophie Corbeau.
To compensate for losses due to the war in the Persian Gulf, Western countries decided to sell off 400 million barrels from reserves. The losses were higher — over 1 billion barrels, but as soon as the Strait of Hormuz opened, oil prices fell.
Nothing similar exists in the relatively young gas market. Here, prices strongly depend on the current balance of supply and demand, and that's where the difficulties lie.
"The crisis is exacerbated by summer heat and a potentially record El Niño," says Anne-Sophie Corbeau. "When the war started, I thought: no big deal, Asia will consume a little less gas. But as a result, the heat and air conditioners led to demand actually increasing there."
Should We Expect a Crisis?
As long as the Iranian war continues, Europe will be in a state of limbo. But everything can change very quickly, note experts from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES).
"Futures prices indicate that gas might be cheaper in January than it is now. So what's the point of filling storage facilities in summer if you can just buy this gas on the market in winter?" they write.
The European agency ACER, which coordinates energy oversight in all 27 EU countries, is also confident that everything will be fine, as the EU has more than adequately equipped itself with terminals for regasifying liquefied gas in recent years.
"Regasification capacities will help compensate for the shortage of reserves in underground storage facilities," notes ACER. "Provided there is an adequate supply of liquefied gas."
In other words, it's a question of price. If the Iranian war ends, the heat subsides, and no new problems arise, Europe will easily get through this winter. But if not, then...
"The system is extremely unstable. Anything can happen. For example, Ukrainians might decide to blow up Russian gas pipelines to Turkey or Yamal-LNG. Or a hurricane in America might affect the volume of liquefied gas exports. Then prices will definitely rise," said Anne-Sophie Corbeau.