Influential Economist Fired in Russia for Predicting Russia's Defeat in War of Attrition
The state-owned Russian corporation "VEB.RF" fired its long-time chief economist Andrei Klepach after his sharp speech criticizing the country's economic course. According to The Bell, the head of the state corporation Igor Shuvalov made the decision to dismiss him after "a call from above."
The reason for the authorities' reaction was Klepach's report at a session of the Nikitsky Club of the Moscow Exchange, which, after its publication in The Moscow Times, attracted the attention of numerous media outlets. In his speech, the expert stated that Russia lives in illusions and is steadily falling behind in the technological and economic race.
Touching upon the topic of war and sanctions pressure, Klepach noted that Russia would not be able to win a protracted conflict.
“In this war of attrition, we will not win the competition. We have an illusion that everything will collapse there. It didn't collapse and it won't collapse. Our costs are growing,” the economist said.
He added that the Russian economy is losing competition not only to the USA and China but "in some aspects, also to Ukraine."
According to Klepach's estimates, losses from attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian infrastructure, oil and gas, and chemical complexes "are already turning into a noticeable macroeconomic barrier to growth." The situation is exacerbated by the strict policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as the expansion of American sanctions, due to which India and China have begun to reduce purchases of Russian oil.
The most drastic part of the report was a warning about a possible social crisis, which the expert compared to the events of the February Revolution of 1917 and the collapse of the USSR in 1991.
“I believe that Russia will not fall apart, but I am almost certain that we will come to a social crisis. Economically, we will not collapse, but our lagging will increase with all the consequences that follow from this,” Klepach said.
Andrei Klepach served as chief economist of "VEB.RF" for 12 years, and before that, he was deputy head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Alexandra Prokopenko, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Berlin Center, calls him one of Russia's best macroeconomists, noting that Klepach had previously stood out for his realistic assessments, which often caused dissatisfaction among the leadership.