Novopolotsk Refinery prepares for planned maintenance. This is bad news for Russia
In autumn, the Russian fuel market may once again face a deficit. Planned maintenance is scheduled for September at several large Russian oil refineries, as well as at the Novopolotsk Refinery "Naftan". This could happen just during the period of traditional autumn growth in demand for gasoline and diesel fuel, writes "Kommersant".
Novopolotsk Refinery. Illustrative photo
Belarus has recently been actively compensating for the reduction in production at Russian refineries. In July, Belarusian enterprises supplied record volumes of fuel to Russia: about 212 thousand tons of gasoline and 162 thousand tons of diesel fuel.
However, already at the beginning of August, Belarusian supplies began to significantly decrease. According to one industry source, from July 20 to August 12, only about 21 thousand tons of Belarusian gasoline were sold to Russia by rail. For comparison, from June 22 to July 17, this figure was 165 thousand tons.
A similar situation developed with diesel fuel: the volume of railway supplies decreased from 115.9 thousand to 8.5 thousand tons. Market participants presumably reduced purchases of Belarusian fuel, expecting that the situation with Russian production would improve in August.
The Mozyr and Novopolotsk refineries together have significant production capabilities, and their operation is important not only for Belarus but also for the Russian market. A significant portion of Belarusian fuel is exported, with Russia being one of the main destinations.
The planned maintenance of "Naftan" may primarily affect consumers in the Volga region. The Novopolotsk plant does not have its own network of gas stations in Russia, so a significant part of its products are sold through independent traders. A reduction in supplies may ultimately hit them the hardest.
Russia may try to partially compensate for the shortage of Belarusian supplies by importing fuel from India. In early August, a batch of about 60 thousand tons of Indian gasoline from Nayara Energy arrived in Murmansk. According to estimates, the total monthly import of fuel to Russia could reach 400 thousand tons.
However, Indian fuel is likely to be supplied mainly to gas stations of large vertically integrated oil companies, and not to the free exchange market. This means that independent Russian gas stations may feel the deficit more acutely.
Meanwhile, gasoline prices in Russia are already rising. From the beginning of the year to mid-July, the average retail price of a liter of AI-92 increased by 7.4% and reached 67.03 Russian rubles (about $0.79), and AI-95 also increased by 7.4%, to 72.14 rubles ($0.85). Diesel fuel increased even more – by 12.1%, to 86.85 rubles ($1.02) per liter.