Belarusian Silovik: The trend towards ending the "SMO" is strengthening
A Telegram channel created by Lukashenka's loyalists lists signs that Russia is preparing to wind down the war.
A Russian serviceman an instant before being hit by a drone. Screenshot from a video by Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces
“For some time now, the trend towards ending the SMO has been strengthening,” writes the Telegram channel “Belarusian Silovik,” using the euphemism “SMO” like the Russians do to refer to the war against Ukraine. “Many of my subscribers [from Russia] from various spheres have been sending information for a long time about how mentions of the SMO are being 'erased' from daily life everywhere. You can simply observe this in the near future after reading this post.”
Recently, I had a good laugh when a friendly admin, who places advertising integrations for large Russian corporations, sent a large list of words that should not be published on the channel for the advertising integration to go through. Among these words was everything related to the war, and, to my surprise, even a mention of the Russian leader.
Business always sets trends before they become obvious,” the channel concludes.
A Nasha Niva investigation revealed that Artur Haika, an officer of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus, is behind the "Belarusian Silovik" channel. The channel's rhetoric has always been aggressive, glorifying war and repression, and inciting hatred towards Ukraine and democracy.
“Everyone, of course, wants peace. Including me. It's impossible to count how many people I helped through my channel will never respond to me again. The only question is what price this peace will come at,” ambiguously writes the channel's author.
This can be read in two ways: either as regret for the hundreds of thousands of Russian security forces who became victims of imperial ambitions, or as criticism of Moscow's readiness to end the war without achieving its goals. Or both.
The increase in Russian army losses led to the halt of the Russian offensive. In 2025, Russia occupied less than 1% of Ukrainian territory at the cost of losing approximately 150,000 servicemen killed. Over 10 months of 2026, Russia occupied about 0.1% of the territory, while losses exceed those of last year. Such a cost of advancement may be unacceptable even for a dehumanized Russian society.
The ambiguous rhetoric of US President Donald Trump gave the Kremlin hope that he would be able to entice Washington into dividing Europe into spheres of influence in exchange for American corporations gaining access to the development of Russian natural resources. The attack by the US and Israel on Iran led to a surge in energy prices, which not only brought super-profits to American oil and gas companies but also replenished the Russian military budget. However, assistance from European countries compensated Ukraine for the loss of American support, and the Ukrainian army held its ground. And the failure of the Trumpists in the congressional elections finally cast doubt on the Kremlin's hopes.
It is significant that Moscow and Washington postponed a new round of negotiations on Ukraine until after the congressional elections.
A week before the negotiations, Ukraine struck seven Russian oil refining complexes, disabling up to 30 percent of their capacities. As a result, from Monday, November 9, "Rosneft" introduced restrictions on fuel sales at all gas stations in Russia.
At the negotiations in Abu Dhabi, NATO's commander in Europe, General Alexus Hrynkevich, was present for the first time — a sign that Moscow had agreed to more substantive discussions. A European delegation also arrived for the negotiations for the first time, with whom the Ukrainian side coordinates its actions.