Ukraine opened the way for its drones to strike Russia by destroying frontline air defense
Massive bombardments of Russian oil refineries, ports, and military enterprises, culminating in the largest strike on Moscow and the region in the entire war, involving almost 600 drones on the night of May 17, became possible thanks to a new strategy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. New medium-range drones have significantly "thinned out" the air defense deployed in the occupied territories and border regions of Russia itself. Such strikes alone cannot turn the tide of the war, military analysts believe, but they are changing both the war and the dynamics of the conflict, writes The Moscow Times.
Photo: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
In recent months, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been directing more and more resources to medium-range strikes — on an area located approximately 30-200 km behind the front line. By destroying air defense assets and rear supply facilities with drones, Ukraine disrupts the advance of Russian troops and opens the way for long-range drones and missiles that strike oil refineries, oil depots, ports, and military factories, two Ukrainian commanders, two drone specialists, and three military analysts told Reuters.
"Medium-range strikes are now playing a decisive role" in inflicting long-range strikes on Russia at distances up to 2000 km, Robert Brovdy, Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, told Reuters. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated that the number of medium-range strikes has doubled compared to March, and quadrupled compared to February.
The Wall Street Journal calls this "probably the main change in the course of hostilities this spring." The number of medium-range drones, such as Ukrainian FP-2 and "Chaklun V," and the American Hornet, is growing. The Armed Forces of Ukraine also use Starlink satellite communications for strikes, which the Russian army no longer has.
Intensive research and development activities, as well as an increase in the number of skilled pilots, are bearing fruit, the head of the UAV unit of the 1st National Guard Corps of Ukraine "Azov," who published videos of successful strikes on Russian rear infrastructure objects, told the newspaper.
According to Robert Brovdy, his unmanned forces have destroyed at least 129 air defense systems in Russian-occupied territories this year. As a result, he stated last week, the Russian army is experiencing a shortage of them and is forced to use outdated complexes and radar stations that were "in service back in the 1960s."
As the commander of the 7th battalion of the 414th separate brigade of unmanned systems told Reuters, his unit is mainly engaged in destroying targets at a distance of up to 100 km from the line of contact. The most valuable, according to him, are radar installations and anti-aircraft missile defense systems such as "Buk," "Tor," and "Pantsir."
Drones have changed the nature of the conflict so much that the front line may no longer be where the outcome of the war is decided, notes Bloomberg. Now there are only three Ukrainian soldiers per kilometer on the very front lines, "they have become a nuisance," Mykola Bielieskov, a senior consultant at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv, told the agency.
For defense, they are not particularly needed there either — the Armed Forces of Ukraine have learned to reliably stop Russian soldiers with the help of drones, as a result of which the front line has hardly changed since late winter.
Most importantly, Ukraine, which suffered from massive raids by Russian drones and missiles on its cities and power plants, can now itself bomb energy and military facilities in Russian regions. And the occupiers' air defense systems interfere much less with its long-range drones and missiles, within whose reach about 70% of the Russian population has found itself.
As a result, the mood in the Russian Z-community is becoming increasingly bleak, states Ivan Filippov, who has been studying it since the beginning of the war.
"Even considering the level of freedom that prevails in the Z-space, writing texts on the topic 'we are moving towards defeat' is still dangerous," but Z-authors still try to convey to readers the idea that "the war is at a stalemate, prospects are vague, and victory is impossible," Filippov notes:
"As a result, I read kilometers of texts from a variety of authors, ranging from tech specialists and engineers working with drones to military personnel, in which the authors ostensibly formally write about what is necessary for victory, but in reality, they describe an inevitable defeat."
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