Netanyahu's Last Stand? Israel Prepares for Parliamentary Elections — The First Since October 7th and the War

On October 27, three years after the bloody Hamas attack on October 7, parliamentary elections will be held in Israel, which many call the most important in the state's history, writes the BBC.

Most experts agree that after October 7, the discourse is no longer about the struggle between left and right ideologies, as the left flank of Israeli politics has significantly thinned.

In these elections, Israelis will primarily vote for a figure capable not only of proposing a new security strategy — which is the main item on Israel's internal agenda — but also of answering many accumulated questions in society: how the October 7 massacre became possible in the first place, who will be held accountable for it, and what the future of democratic institutions in the state is.

37 parties are vying for 120 seats in the Knesset. It is expected that only about 11 of them will overcome the electoral threshold of 3.25% and enter parliament, after which one candidate will need to form a viable governing coalition.

To obtain a majority in parliament, a party or bloc needs to secure 61 mandates.

Formally, the leader of any party that has crossed the electoral threshold can become prime minister if they are able to form a coalition supported by the majority of Knesset members. Nevertheless, typically, the right to first attempt to form a government is granted to the leader of the party that has won the most mandates.

Also, under certain agreements, a rotation scheme for the head of government may be considered.

Who is participating in the race for the prime minister's chair, what are Benjamin Netanyahu's chances of retaining power, and how will the election results affect the Middle Eastern region?

Netanyahu: Outdated Slogans or Strategy?

Benjamin Netanyahu is entering these elections resorting to tried-and-true tactics that have helped him win for decades, but this time, many experts believe, they might not be enough.

He recently stated that the question is posed as follows: either another right-wing government, or a Palestinian state, which will inevitably emerge under any other government.

Political scientist and former Netanyahu advisor Ariel Bulstein believes that after October 7, the creation of a Palestinian state is not being considered at all, but, in his opinion, Netanyahu is right to frame the question in this way, based purely on mathematical calculations.

“In pre-election discussions, no party openly mentions the topic of a Palestinian state. But not a day will pass after the elections, when a coalition needs to be formed, that Netanyahu’s opponents will have no mathematical alternative other than to rely on Arab lists. And for them, the creation of a Palestinian state is the most important issue,” says Bulstein in an interview with the BBC Russian Service.

Netanyahu’s opponents say that for thirty years he has been using the same election slogans, which are no longer relevant in current Israeli realities.

“After the October 7 massacre, people from the left fringe of Israeli politics do not even consider the issue of a Palestinian state. This issue is not on the table for either side. But for Bibi, it’s the leitmotif of every one of his campaigns, and it’s simply absurd,” believes Israeli political commentator Tal Schneider.

According to her, Israeli society is most afraid of external enemies, and in the eyes of the majority, Netanyahu is still more capable than others of confronting them, but too many questions have arisen concerning him.

To this day, no commission has been established to investigate the circumstances of the October 7 attack, no one in the country's leadership has been held accountable for this terrible defense failure, Hamas has not been defeated, and Iran has not been stopped.

In internal politics, critics say, Israel is increasingly transforming from a liberal democracy into an authoritarian state, where the system of checks and balances is gradually eroding, the independence of the judiciary is being limited, and the influence of religion is growing.

For many Israelis, the upcoming elections are the last chance to stop this process, says Schneider.

“The fact that Netanyahu wins time and again and thereby angers his opponents – that is democracy, that is exactly how it works. He is simply very strong in politics, that’s all,” Bulstein is convinced.

Pre-election polls show that Netanyahu and his coalition consistently, though not by much, trail the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot.

Just nine days before the elections, US President Donald Trump finally decided to openly support Bibi.

In a social media post, Trump called Netanyahu a “great warrior prime minister” and expressed his “full and unconditional support” for him.

Trump also hinted at the possibility of resuming joint military actions against Iran if “Iranian authorities do not change their behavior without delay.”

The Iranian threat and the prospect of its elimination are very important issues for Israelis, so, perhaps, Trump's statement will slightly strengthen Bibi's position in the remaining days until the vote.

Gadi Eisenkot — Bibi’s Main Rival

Павялічыць

Almost always in Israel's history, political blocs were formed based on common ideological views, however, during the tenure of Benjamin Netanyahu, who has held the prime minister's office longer than anyone else, alliances that previously seemed impossible began to emerge on Israel's political map.

Currently, the main opponent of Netanyahu and his ultra-right coalition is Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the "Yashar" ("Forward") party. Parties of various persuasions — right-wing, left-wing, and centrists, united by the desire to remove Netanyahu from power — are already ready to join a bloc with him.

According to many, Eisenkot is Netanyahu's most serious opponent in decades.

He is a centrist with a rightward lean on security issues and could well win over that segment of Bibi’s traditional electorate that has long wanted an alternative within their ideological camp.

Eisenkot, who advocates for holding the guilty accountable, political reforms, and national unity, sharply criticizes Netanyahu's leadership for its actions both before and after the October 7 Hamas attack.

While supporting Israel's military operations, he at the same time asserts that the government lacks a clear strategy and calls for an independent investigation into the failures related to the October 7 attack.

Gadi Eisenkot is a former Chief of Staff, aged 66. Colleagues describe him as a serious, straightforward person who is not prone to maneuvering.

“He is also a grieving father. In December 2023, he lost his son, who died in battle in Gaza. This puts him in a unique position because Israel is still in shock from the nightmare of October 7. People see him as someone who made the greatest sacrifice in this war — the life of his son,” says political commentator Tal Schneider.

According to her, he will not engage in the creation of a Palestinian state but will ensure the enforcement of Israeli laws. For example, he has promised to reinstate punitive measures against settlers who terrorize Palestinians in the West Bank.

“He is a former head of the IDF, which means he can be trusted on security matters. 90% of these elections are built precisely around security,” believes Schneider.

Political scientist Ariel Bulstein agrees that having been Chief of Staff in his background automatically gives Eisenkot many points, but he believes that Eisenkot is not an independent political figure.

“Netanyahu’s opponents have simply chosen a new messiah for themselves, just as they chose Tzipi Livni, then Lapid, then Gantz for this role over the past 20 years,” says Bulstein. “Now it’s Eisenkot. We know nothing about him as an independent political figure. And if he loses, we will never find out, because in four years, the stake will be placed on someone else.”

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