The US promises to increase arms supplies to Ukraine, but insists on "European self-defense" by 2027.
This turn of events signifies a radical change in the rules of the game and triggers a tough countdown for Europe against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and the uncertainty that looms over the transatlantic security system.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (right) and U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth speak to reporters ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers at alliance headquarters in Brussels. October 15, 2025. Photo: AP Photo / Virginia Mayo
The Trump administration has conveyed in behind-the-scenes conversations to European allies that the United States no longer intends to bear the primary burden of the alliance's conventional defense after 2027. This was reported by the Kyiv Post, citing three sources familiar with the content of confidential talks held this week.
According to information presented at briefings for European colleagues mid-week, Pentagon officials openly stated that the main priority for the U.S. will be the Indo-Pacific region.
It was emphasized that America "cannot fight a war on two fronts," so the structural transfer of responsibility for the defense of the continent to Europe itself is a settled matter and not subject to discussion.
Ukraine in the spotlight
Despite the strategic shift, the American side assured that arms supplies to Ukraine are continuing and will even increase by the end of this year. This demonstrates Washington's intention to keep Kyiv armed even during the redistribution of responsibility within NATO.
A high-ranking Western official familiar with the negotiations described the situation as follows:
"Support for Ukraine remains, but Europe must be prepared for a NATO in which the United States will no longer be an automatic 'rapid reaction force'."
Another European diplomat was even more categorical:
"Washington is telling Europe that the era of American dominance in NATO is ending — and the timelines are already set."
Short deadline and consequences
European capitals were made aware that "there should be no surprises." If Europe does not form its own management structure within the alliance by 2027, the United States is ready to completely withdraw from key planning processes, including the NATO Force Model (NFM) and the Defense Planning Process (NDPP).
For now, American officials will continue to participate in these processes, but solely to facilitate the transfer of authority. After 2027, as one official noted, Europe will have to "figure it out on its own," without relying on U.S. participation as something guaranteed.
A senior security council official from one European country described the American message as "firm, final, and unambiguously strategic."
Fewer Americans at headquarters
The changes will also affect staffing. The Pentagon plans to reduce the number of senior American officers in NATO's command structure, freeing up these positions for Europeans.
However, one key position remains untouched: the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) will still be an American. This preserves the central pillar of the alliance's military architecture.
Washington demands from Europeans not just words, but "verified proof" that they are increasing military capabilities. The U.S. contribution to regional defense plans will be limited only to those forces (permanent and rotational) that are already on European soil — without expanding obligations.
As one Western official summarized: "This is not a troop withdrawal. But it's the end of the old NATO paradigm."