Cuba hasn't been doing well for a long time. Moreover, its economic model and demographic collapse strongly resemble Lukashenka's. Is it the end?
Will Cuban communism collapse after the overthrow of Nicolás Maduro?
Old Havana: daily life amidst deep economic decline. January 5, 2026. Photo: AP Photo / Ramon Espinosa
In Cuba's second-largest city, Santiago, crowds of people openly listen to the music of Cuban emigrants. The voices of Gloria Estefan and Willie Chirino, singing "Our day will come soon," echo through the streets.
The main impetus for such sentiments was the overthrow of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro with the involvement of the United States. For a country with a population of less than 10 million people, this marks a new chapter, as Venezuelan oil supplies were the only factor that allowed the state budget to be balanced for a long time.
The fall of the regime in Caracas could trigger the process of the Cuban dictatorship's collapse, writes WSJ.
In the poorer cities, people openly speculate whether the communist government of President Miguel Díaz-Canel — successor to Fidel and Raúl Castro — can hold on. The situation is becoming critical, as the loss of Venezuelan support could leave the state security apparatus without salaries.
The daily life of ordinary Cubans has turned into a nightmare. As 66-year-old Reinaldo Flores told a journalist, on the second day after Maduro's fall, his apartment had been without water for five days straight. Along with constant power outages, declining medicine, and mountains of garbage in the streets, this has become the "new normal."
Garbage in the streets of Havana. January 5, 2026. Photo: AP Photo / Ramon Espinosa
Life is made more difficult by heat and mosquito-borne diseases. Recently, according to the man, he simultaneously had no electricity, water, or gas for cooking.
The crisis has caused unprecedented emigration. As the WSJ writes, more than 2.7 million people have left Cuba since 2020 – about a quarter of its residents, with mainly active youth departing. According to demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, the actual population of the island has shrunk to 8 million. The birth rate has never been so low.
Tourism, once the country's mainstay, is also in decline. Foreign currency revenues have fallen by 75%. A new 42-story hotel in Havana, costing $200 million, is almost empty, and the overall hotel occupancy rate doesn't even reach 30%. Few want to go to a country where the streets are full of garbage. Meanwhile, tourists from Russia and China most often use "all-inclusive" packages, so their money hardly reaches ordinary Cubans: tourists don't visit small restaurants or take taxis.
A lonely tourist on a Havana street. January 6, 2026. Photo: AP Photo / Ramon Espinosa
As analyst William LeoGrande notes, unlike the crisis after the collapse of the USSR, a time known as the "Special Period" when economic pain was felt across Cuban society, the difficulties in this crisis disproportionately hit those Cubans who do not have relatives abroad sending them dollars. Such a situation causes real social tension.
As the WSJ writes, the Cuban state survived on billions of dollars paid into the budget by Cuban doctors working in Venezuela or Mexico, as well as thanks to Venezuelan oil supplies at preferential prices. This was a scheme similar to how Moscow sponsors Alexander Lukashenka's regime.
According to expert Jorge R. Piñon, Cuba consumes at least 100,000 barrels of oil per day. Venezuela supplied 35,000. The island's own production (40,000 barrels) is heavy crude with sulfur and metals, which literally destroys the worn-out equipment of local thermal power plants.
Cuba has no money to buy fuel on the world market, and hopes for supplies from Angola or Algeria at reduced prices remain theoretical for now.
Piñon warns: without Venezuelan oil, Cuba's energy infrastructure faces complete paralysis within 30 days. However, the expert allows for a paradoxical scenario: "I wouldn't be surprised if the Americans order Venezuela to continue oil supplies to Cuba to prevent chaos from breaking out."
Workers lower the Cuban flag near the US Embassy in Havana in memory of Cubans who died during the US operation in Venezuela. January 5, 2026. Photo: AP Photo / Ramon Espinosa
As the WSJ writes, for now, the Cuban leadership is operating according to old schemes: herding people to rallies and declaring mourning for 32 officers who died in Venezuela. However, without electricity and fuel (sometimes electricity is only provided for 4 hours a day), the country finds itself in a vicious circle, the real way out of which may be a change of system.