New Front in the Iranian War: Houthis Threaten Oil Supplies
The war in the Middle East has reached a critical point: the entry of Yemen's Houthis into the conflict threatens to block the last remaining oil supply route from the Persian Gulf. If, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the terminal in the Red Sea is also paralyzed, the world will face a deficit of 15 million barrels per day, which could raise prices to unprecedented heights.
Photo: AP Photo / Osamah Abdulrahman
The Iranian war has reached a red line in the Red Sea, beyond which lies a full-scale global energy crisis. This weekend, a month after the start of the war between Israel and the US with Iran, Iran's allies in Yemen — the Houthis — entered the conflict. For now, the shots are warning shots, aimed at Israel, but the Houthis are capable of attacking the Saudi pipeline and oil terminal in the Red Sea at any moment, writes the BBC.
After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz — the only exit from the Persian Gulf, through which 25% of all oil and 20% of gas entered the world market — Saudi Arabia diverted approximately one-third of these supplies to an bypass route via an oil pipeline to the Yanbu al-Bahr terminal on the Red Sea coast, which it built during the Iran-Iraq War at the end of the last century.
Thanks to these supplies, global oil prices have not risen as much as they could have, since Saudi Arabia — one of the three largest oil exporters in the world along with the US and Russia — supplied about 6 million barrels per day through Hormuz before the war, and now exports 5 million barrels via the alternative route through Yanbu al-Bahr.
Most of this oil is heading to Asia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has been blocked for two years by the Houthis — a Shia group in Yemen that controls a significant portion of the country and receives support from Iran.
Since the beginning of the Iranian war, the Houthis had remained quiet. But this weekend, they started firing. On Saturday morning, they launched missiles towards Israel and threatened to continue as long as the war with Iran continues. In the evening, the attack was repeated.
Analysts expected such a development. They noted that the Houthis, despite Iran's support, are an independent force and would only enter the fight if Iran faced a mortal threat.
"Any decision to enter the war will be made in Yemen, not in Tehran," noted April Alley, a Yemen expert at the Washington Institute, even before the first Houthi attacks.
She predicted that the Houthis might start with attacks on Israel, which is what eventually happened. And then proceed down a path of escalation.
"With the Strait of Hormuz closed, attacks on Red Sea shipping would allow the Houthis to exert maximum pressure on global energy markets and shipping. Especially considering that Saudi Arabia is increasing oil exports through the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz."
"Islamic Revolution with a Yemeni Flavor"
The Houthis' decision to enter the war coincided with the arrival in the Middle East from Japan of the American amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, carrying thousands of Marines potentially capable of occupying Kharg Island — Iran's oil heartland.
After a month of fruitless attempts to force the Islamic Republic to surrender through bombings and assassinations of its leaders, Donald Trump continues to claim that he does not intend to send soldiers to Iran for a ground operation. He qualified this by saying that even if he were to, he wouldn't tell anyone in advance.
Now, American escalation has been answered on behalf of Iran by its allies in the global Islamic revolution — the Houthis. Their threat is serious — if Saudi Arabia loses its alternative oil export route as well, the global deficit will lead to a new price surge, with prices already having jumped from $70 to $115 per barrel during a month of war.
"The Houthis announced that they have entered the war and launched a missile at Israel. But the main question is whether their targets will be the Yanbu al-Bahr oil terminal or the Saudi East-West pipeline. If it stops, the oil deficit will increase from 10 million to 13–15 million barrels per day," calculated Gregory Brew, an oil and Iran expert at Eurasia Group.
Not only the Houthis but also Iran are theoretically capable of destroying both the pipeline and the terminal, warns Mike Knight, a Yemen expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy with 20 years of experience as a security advisor in the region.
But even if Iran fails and loses the war with America and Israel, the Houthis will remain a destabilizing force in the region, he is confident.
"I have seriously studied the Houthis since the 1980s," he said. "They are true adherents of the Islamic revolution and could well outlast both the Islamic Republic of Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, becoming the last bastion of the Islamic revolution, with a Yemeni flavor."