"Lukashenka knows what Putin is plotting, and he is terrified of it." Chaly on the threat of a new war
Siarhei Chaly draws attention to the hasty military preparations in Belarus. Lukashenka is trying to hold Putin back, but he can no longer block Moscow's decisions, Chaly said in an interview with Radio Svaboda.
In an interview with Radio Svaboda's program "Kanapa," Chaly explained why he considers the period from May to September 2027 to be particularly dangerous and how Lukashenka is trying to influence the Russian leader.
According to Siarhei Chaly, Lukashenka's recent behavior indicates that he understands the danger of the situation he finds himself in.
"He is demonstrating two things: an animal fear of an approaching collapse, and on the other hand, at the same time, as is always the case, moments of fatalism. These phrases like 'Well, I did everything I could. God forbid there won't be a war or something else.' This is an attempt to justify himself before history," says Chaly.
The analyst is convinced that Lukashenka knows about Putin's possible intentions and is deeply afraid of them. At the same time, Chaly points to signs of hasty military preparations in Belarus.
"My baseline forecast is a very high risk. When the probability of some threat begins to exceed a conditional 30%, it means that it must already be considered not as something that might pass by, but as a working scenario for which one must prepare. Because the consequences of being unprepared are very costly. Pay attention to how much evidence is emerging that they are in a hurry. Lukashenka visited the training grounds twice. Both times he spoke about discipline. There he said that they would pick through frozen ground with pickaxes, live in tents, that he needs six fortified areas. They need to finish before it thaws. Why? There is some time horizon. I would conditionally define it as: May of next year to September of next year," says Chaly.
The analyst considers the deployment of the Russian "Oreshnik" missile system to be one of the most dangerous circumstances for Belarus.
"He had one of those moments when he was simultaneously frightened, panicked, and showed fatalism. When he realized that the deployment of 'Oreshniks' on Belarusian territory only makes sense as a nuclear weapon. Because on its own, it is inaccurate. But the test took place, it is a solid-fuel missile, old proven technology, it flies. Putin is confident that it flies and hits roughly where needed. From the perspective of the theater of operations, this means that these facilities on Belarusian territory will be suppressed first," believes the analyst.
Chaly also draws attention to the scenario of the military exercises, which, according to him, envisaged defense along the Hrodna – Skidzyel – Slonim line.
When asked whether this could simply be a show for the public, Chaly replied: "Too expensive for such a show."
"He is now Putin's charmer"
Separately, Chaly explained why Lukashenka meets so often with Putin and what they could be talking about for hours.
"He is now Putin's charmer. You know how there are charmers of snakes or dangerous animals. Like, 'Easy, easy now.' That is what he is doing now. And what other options does he have? The point is that he says: 'Well, you keep your word, right? You won't use this grouping of ours somewhere, right? You are a man of your word?' In the hope that he will at least nod or something like that," says Chaly.
At the same time, the analyst does not believe that Lukashenka has the ability to block Moscow's decisions.
When asked whether Putin would consult with him if he decides to use Belarus in a new military scenario, Chaly answered in the negative.
"No. And what choice does Lukashenka have here? Just imagine: he says, 'Well, I'm against it.' And they tell him: 'Well, dude, in this situation you are a traitor to the Union State.'"
Chaly believes that Lukashenka lost the ability to independently resist Moscow after the events of 2020–2021.
"I would say that the arrest of the Wagnerites in 2020 was the last empirical fact when he could still demonstrate some agency regarding the Russians. Now that is completely impossible. Roughly since 2020–2021."
According to Chaly, Lukashenka understands this dependence and is trying to prevent a turn of events that could jeopardize his own position.