"Six-lane highway" to the presidency. Unrest in France strengthens Le Pen's chances for the presidency

On Saturday, October 17, France experienced the largest unrest in several years. Participants looted shops, set fire to buildings, and damaged government institutions. Looting continued the following night, including in affluent areas of Paris.

On Sunday, Macron addressed the nation, but did not declare a state of emergency. Opponents and former allies criticized his speech for lacking concrete solutions to restore order.

On Monday, October 19, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced the imposition of a curfew in certain areas. Macron refused to accept the resignation of the Interior Minister and ordered an investigation into possible failures in intelligence gathering and police preparedness for the unrest.

The president's ability to appease the discontented is now significantly less than during the "yellow vests" protests in 2018-2019. Back then, he made concessions costing billions of euros. Now France has a large national debt and one of the largest budget deficits in the eurozone. New expenditures are limited by the state of finances, and passing decisions through a divided parliament is difficult.

Thus, Macron found himself caught between opposing demands: investors expect restraint in public spending, while protesters demand more support. The unrest further alarmed financial markets, for which political instability means greater risk.

Macron's former allies link the current deadlock to his decision to dissolve parliament and call early elections in 2024. These weakened the president and did not provide the country with a stable parliamentary majority.

“The end of this term is a slow agony,” wrote Loïc Kervran, a former deputy from Macron's camp, on X. He stated that the president had paralyzed the country with his "absurd decision" to dissolve parliament.

Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, who is preparing for his own participation in the presidential elections, also criticized Macron. After Macron's address, Philippe wrote that, like millions of French people, he wanted to hear solutions and see initiatives to restore order.

Against this backdrop, Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, could gain political advantage. As Reuters notes, she could attract both people dissatisfied with the falling standard of living and those alarmed by the looting and arsons. In her video address on Sunday, Le Pen portrayed Macron's government as crumbling, and herself as a politician capable of restoring order.

“Le Pen no longer needs to spend money on an election campaign. Before her, it’s not just a clear path — it’s a six-lane highway,” another former deputy from Macron's camp, Jean-Baptiste Moreau, told Reuters.

According to polls cited by the agency, Le Pen is already leading in the 2027 presidential race. Among others, Philippe and the leader of the radical left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, are vying for a spot in the second round. Recent polls show Mélenchon slightly ahead of Philippe, and his advancement to the second round would be very favorable for Le Pen.

Despite calls from opponents to stay in France, Macron arrived in Kuwait on Monday as part of a trip to the Persian Gulf countries. He explains that the visit will help secure fuel supplies and alleviate economic difficulties that are pushing people to protest. But, Reuters notes, the trip could reinforce the impression that the president is out of touch with the country's mood.

Moreau told the agency that during a conversation with Macron on Sunday, he urged him to prepare for an organized early departure. According to the former deputy, this would allow them to exit the political deadlock instead of spending another six months without clear direction.

“He doesn't want to give up, it's not in his nature. But that's exactly what he should do for the sake of the country,” Moreau said.

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