Ukrainian political scientist: Drones could unexpectedly fly to Minsk airport and oil refineries
"Ukraine is not interested in providing a pretext for war, but that doesn't mean Lukashenka has no vulnerable spots."
Shot down drone. Photo: AP Photo / Evgeniy Maloletka
Ukrainian political scientist Yevhen Mahda stated in a comment to "Belsat" that the current policy of Alexander Lukashenka is related to him feeling an indulgence he supposedly received amidst contacts with the United States.
"I see the following reasons for Lukashenka's arrogance. He obviously perceives his dialogue with the United States as sufficient indulgence to be simultaneously a partner of the USA in negotiations and, accordingly, interact with Russia, help it circumvent Ukrainian defense, and remain in the role of co-aggressor," said Yevhen Mahda.
According to him, Alexander Lukashenka expects Ukraine to refrain from retaliatory actions.
"Lukashenka, I think, tried to secure guarantees from the United States that Ukraine would not respond. But we live in a world where wandering drones can unexpectedly fly to Minsk airport, and to oil refineries, and even suddenly appear at other strategic enterprises in Belarus," the political scientist noted.
Mahda emphasized that there is no public demand in Belarusian society for war with Ukraine.
"It must be understood that there is no desire in Belarusian society to wage war with Ukraine. And Lukashenka risks ending up with a very small circle of personally devoted people who, in the event of escalation, will be ready to support his aggressive intentions," he stated.
According to him, the overwhelming majority of Belarusians do not want the war to affect the country's territory.
"I am sure that the average Belarusian does not want war with Ukraine, nor does he want to see drones or missiles flying over Belarusian territory at all," Mahda said.
The actions of the Belarusian authorities, according to his assessment, cannot remain without consequences.
"I am sure that there will be a Ukrainian response, and it will be asymmetrical," the political scientist noted.
He added that, despite the tension on the border, Ukraine is not interested in direct escalation.
"Although the Belarusian-Ukrainian border now resembles a frontline, there are no hostilities there. Ukraine is not interested in providing a pretext for war, but that doesn't mean Lukashenka has no vulnerable spots," Mahda stated.
According to his forecast, the consequences of Minsk's current policy may become apparent in the near future.
"I think we will see them quite soon — perhaps as early as the beginning of 2026," he said.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the Belarusian authorities of assisting Russia in organizing drone attacks on Ukrainian territory. According to his assertion, Belarusian territory is used to circumvent Ukrainian air defense systems during drone attacks.
"According to our intelligence, the equipment used in attacks against Ukraine, in Belarusian settlements near the border, is placed, among other things, on residential buildings," Zelenskyy said.
The President of Ukraine also announced a possible retaliatory reaction.
"We will inform our partners and prepare joint responses," Zelenskyy said, without specifying whether he was referring to diplomatic measures or military response.
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