Peter Thiel: The West will be saved not by pretty words, but by hard work. The main principle must be 'does it work or does it not work'

Over the past twenty years, Thiel has consistently warned about dangerous technological stagnation of humanity. In his opinion, since about the 1970s, the West has sharply slowed down in its development.

Progress continued in the 'world of bits' — computers, the internet, mobile technologies, and software. But in the 'world of atoms,' everything was much worse. Mechanical engineering, chemical, aerospace, and nuclear engineering ceased to be the fields where the best engineering talent went.

By the late 1990s, the internet became an important driver of growth. But, according to Thiel, even that was not enough to elevate the entire civilization to a new level.

Thiel sees a great chance in artificial intelligence for a new technological breakthrough and an improvement in the living standards for all. "And now I think that perhaps artificial intelligence is something more than the internet, and that it is, at least potentially, capable of accelerating growth again — with all the good and bad consequences of that."

Should AI be slowed down?

Thiel does not deny the risk that artificial intelligence, which will significantly surpass humans, could get out of control.

"Even if the probability is 5% or 10%, that's quite dangerous," argues the venture capitalist.

But from this, Thiel argues, it does not follow that we should move slower and always choose the most cautious path.

"If we do nothing, if there is no progress in any dimension, I don't think our societies will be able to function normally at all," Thiel believes.

Arguing his point of view, the billionaire notes that

Western society for decades was based on an unwritten intergenerational contract: children should live better than their parents. This meant economic growth, greater material well-being, better medicine, and new opportunities.

"And when that stops working, then, in my opinion, all of society starts to behave in a very, very strange way. People often imagine the alternative to AI as a peaceful, sustainable society with zero growth. I don't believe that's what the alternative looks like," Thiel argues.

In his opinion, the problem with liberal, free societies of the West is that they now lack confidence that economic growth will continue. People have stopped feeling that things are getting better. Politics increasingly turns into a zero-sum game, a patchwork quilt: to gain in one place, politicians cut from another.

"I don't think AI is a panacea for everything. But without it, I think these parties, which operate in the logic of a zero-sum game on the far right and far left, will simply continue to gain strength," Thiel believes.

Threat to democracy in the West

As Thiel argues, there indeed is a tendency towards the weakening of democracy, and liberal societies face serious difficulties. Political leaders are focused on how to gain power, while the question of how to fix deep structural problems in society and the economy is postponed.

Several decades of insufficient economic growth have weakened social ties. The intergenerational social contract has broken down. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the younger generation to buy or or rent housing and to achieve the level of material well-being that previous generations enjoyed. Thiel calls Germany, Europe, and partly the USA 'gerontocracies' — societies that now primarily work for the benefit of the older generation.

Radical parties do not offer good solutions, but they are often the first to name the problem. And that is why they have the support of young people.

Thiel recalls that in the Berlin elections, the "Left" party (Die Linke) received 25% of the total votes, and among voters under 24, 47% voted for it.

The risk of a sharp turn to the left also exists in the USA. Thiel sees a real danger in "democratic socialists." In 1982, this movement numbered about 5,000 people. But during Bernie Sanders's election campaign in 2016, the organization transformed from a veteran community into a young revolutionary movement. The number of its activists grew to 50,000, and the median age dropped from 66 to 33 years.

Is it possible to slow down AI?

In Thiel's view, slowing down AI development would only be possible if there was genuine, sincere cooperation among all states. But such a thing would only be possible if there existed a single world government with real power and real enforcement mechanisms.

"The part of me that remains a classical liberal believes that such a cure could be worse than the disease. Of course, there could be a fake global government where you discuss a lot, make many rather empty statements — and that's it. And, of course, there is a risk that as a result, AI development will be slowed down in the West, but not in China," warns Thiel.

In this context, Thiel sharply criticized Pope Leo's position on AI.

"The Communist Party of China will not listen to the Pope. But there is a likelihood that people in the USA will listen to him. Therefore, in fact, the Pope's encyclical works for the Communist Party of China. I am not saying he is a communist agent, but at least he acted as a useful idiot for the Chinese Communist Party," criticizes the billionaire.

At the same time, Thiel also disagrees with the desire to explain all of the West's problems by Chinese interference. He calls himself a harsh critic of China and considers the rivalry with it extremely serious, but a significant part of Western societies' problems, in his opinion, are self-inflicted.

Why is Europe less afraid of AI?

Döpfner drew attention to a strange paradox. America is traditionally associated with technological optimism, but it is there that protests against AI are already happening. In Europe, the attitude is often calmer.

In Thiel's view, Americans are afraid of AI because it is indeed already changing their lives.

"Of course, the situation is still very dynamic. But as a first approximation, the picture is this: a lot is happening in the USA, China is quickly following suit, and Europe has lagged extremely far behind. Therefore, in Europe, this is simply not felt. It is not felt even at the corporate level," believes the venture capitalist.

He sees this also in Palantir. The company's sales to American businesses are growing rapidly, because corporations understand: they urgently need to figure out how to operate in the new era.

In Europe, there is much less of such a sense of urgency: "That inertia still remains: we can wait. Don't do tomorrow what you can postpone until the day after tomorrow."

Competence is needed instead of moralizing

Modern public discourse is overloaded with senseless moralizing, says Thiel. Society constantly evaluates everything in categories of "good and evil," completely forgetting about the functional evaluation of "does it work or does it not work." In the real world, incompetence with good intentions causes far more harm than harsh but effective work.

Technologies themselves are neutral, similar to an ordinary knife, which can be used both to prepare dinner and to commit a crime. Punishing or banning the tool itself is pointless; only the actions of specific people should be evaluated.

"We have all these discussions about good and evil, but at the same time, there is just an enormous amount of badness around us. There is much that is neither evil nor good, but simply bad. If you live in a world where 99% of businesses, companies, people, political, and business leaders are completely incompetent, that is the problem," argues the billionaire.

What can the welfare state learn from Argentina?

The venture capitalist draws attention to one of the main structural problems of welfare states, which include almost all European states — high taxes and a large budget deficit.

With zero interest rates, such a model could be sustained for a long time. Now, debt servicing is becoming increasingly expensive.

Thiel sees three basic options: sharply cutting government spending, significantly raising taxes, or continuing to borrow money and postpone the solution.

After the 2008 financial crisis, the West, in his opinion, mostly chose the third path. Thiel doubts that this can continue indefinitely.

What could happen as a result can be seen in the example of Argentina. In the 1900s-1920s, the phrase "rich as an Argentine" was common. Tens of thousands of Belarusians then emigrated to Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay in search of a better life. However, since then, Argentina has plunged into a prolonged decline. Now, Javier Milei is trying to turn the situation around through radical structural reforms to cut government spending.

"Can we somehow learn from Argentina's history so that we don't need a hundred years of decline before we get to this?" — the billionaire asks himself.

Where should Europe be?

As Thiel argues, the European economy must grow, create new industries, and participate in building the future. If Europe is capable of becoming a world leader in some field itself — all the better. If the lag is too great, it should cooperate more closely with America.

Thiel recalls that in the late 1960s, Europe managed to launch the joint British-French supersonic aircraft project "Concorde," catching up with and surpassing the USA. The supersonic aviation industry became a field in which Europe was a leader. But in the 1990s, the French closed-network project Minitel eventually lost to the global internet.

"If, in 2026, one asks about AI: is this a story like Concorde or a story like Minitel? To be honest, my assessment is this: Europe has fallen even further behind than Minitel did in its time," Thiel argues.

The billionaire sees the reason not so much in the fear of failure, but in the "fear of success," which, in his opinion, is characteristic of European entrepreneurship.

When an American entrepreneur finds a working model, he might try to scale it to the size of Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg. A European, Thiel suggests, more often at some point will sell the company or stop aggressively growing it.

The venture capitalist cites statistics. If you take the 50 wealthiest people in the USA, only 12 of them belong to Generation X or are younger (born in 1965 or later). Of these 12, 9 earned their money themselves.

In Germany, of the 50 wealthiest people, 20 belong to Generation X. However, all of them inherited their wealth.

"Not a single person has done anything new, created new wealth, built a large new business capable of scaling," Thiel notes.

As the venture capitalist argues, a new large company creates thousands of other wealthy people, tens of thousands of jobs, and entire new industries around itself. Germany once knew how to do this. Thiel suggests that something in this mechanism broke down approximately after 1995.

Why Thiel doesn't want to die?

Thiel has invested in biotechnology and longevity research for many years. And he openly admits that it's not just about business. His motivation is the fear of old age and death.

He recalls that early modern thinkers expected science to alleviate the human condition, conquer diseases, and prolong life. Today, Thiel is "simply shocked by this societal decline, through which we have given up on all of this. People don't even think that we can cure Alzheimer's disease."

In the billionaire's view, there are various reasons why people have become more pessimistic. Medicine has repeatedly faced tasks that turned out to be much more difficult than expected. He recalls the "war on cancer" declared by Richard Nixon in 1971. More than half a century has passed, progress is enormous, but cancer has not been defeated.

Thiel is particularly interested in the possibility of understanding biology as an information system. If this succeeds, theoretically, it will be possible not only to slow down but also to reverse some biological processes.

"Computers can live forever," says the venture capitalist.

At the same time, he does not support the idea of "uploading consciousness into a computer simulation." Thiel believes human identity is deeply linked to the physical body.

To the question of whether eternal life would not become unbearably boring, Thiel simply replies: "It's still better than the alternative. I don't think I would be bored."

Despite talks of eternity, the most concrete medical goal the venture capitalist plans to pursue in the coming years is dementia. He would like to find a way to slow down or reverse the deterioration of the human brain.

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