In Russia, Nabiullina and Mishustin are expected to be dismissed, and a transition to a 'mobilization economy' is anticipated

Elvira Nabiullina. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/TASS

The Telegram channel "Mozhem Obyasnit" (We Can Explain), citing sources close to the Central Bank and the presidential administration, claims that Elvira Nabiullina is considering stepping down from her position as head of the Central Bank, which she has held since 2013.

According to the Telegram channel's sources, Nabiullina is reportedly dissatisfied with the Kremlin's course: she agrees to work until the end of her term in 2027 but is not prepared to perform her duties in the event of martial law, border closures, etc. Nabiullina's absence from the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is called a "diplomatic illness": she "informed the leader, diplomatically fell ill, and is awaiting his response".

Simultaneously, rumors have emerged about the possible future resignation of Mikhail Mishustin's government, who has held the prime minister's post since 2020. A version circulating is that Mishustin could be replaced by Andrei Belousov — currently Minister of Defense, and formerly an assistant to the president on economic affairs.

A proponent of the "besieged fortress" logic and state planning, Belousov is perceived as a person with a mobilization approach, capable of fitting into the logic of a long-term confrontation economy. Political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov states:

«But his transfer to the premiership would not just signify a personnel reshuffle, but a much more serious signal: the state is ready to move from an adaptation model to a rigid mobilization economy».

Essentially, it's about the government's mandate for a new economic system — a conditional State Planning Committee, a military order economy, manual resource allocation, and a priority for industrial mobilization.

Rumors about the government's resignation "should be taken precisely as rumors," Grashchenkov emphasizes: "This is a reflection of the elites' nervousness about the state of the economy." Although the expert does not consider the scenario of the government's resignation "fantastic": the Kremlin might go for it to relieve accumulated public irritation, which is dissatisfied with inflation, restrictions, and internet blockages.

As for Nabiullina, she assumes that she will leave the post of head of the Central Bank in 2027, an acquaintance told The Bell earlier. Next year will mark the end of Nabiullina's third and legally final term, though if desired, legislation could be changed for her fourth term, sources told The Bell.

«Nabiullina herself wants freedom, but her feelings are mixed,» one of the publication's interlocutors claimed.

According to The Bell, Nabiullina could be replaced by Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Maxim Oreshkin, VTB Bank head Andrei Kostin, or Promsvyazbank head Pyotr Fradkov, although there have been no substantive discussions about a new candidate yet.

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