Belarusian Silovik: The tendency for the "SMO" to end is strengthening

"For some time now, the tendency for the SMO to end has been strengthening," writes the Telegram channel "Belarusian Silovik" (they use the euphemism "SMO" after the Russian example to refer to the war against Ukraine). "Many of my subscribers [from Russia] from various fields have been sending information for a long time that mentions of the SMO are being 'erased' from daily life everywhere. You can simply observe this in the near future after reading this post."

Recently, I had a good laugh when a friendly admin, who places advertising integrations for large Russian corporations, sent a long list of words that should not be published in the channel for this advertising integration to go through. Among these words was everything related to war, and, to my surprise, even a mention of the Russian leader.

"Business always sets trends before they become obvious," the channel concludes.

An investigation by "Nasha Niva" revealed that behind the "Belarusian Silovik" channel stands an officer of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus, Artur Haiko. The channel's rhetoric has always been aggressive, glorifying war and repression, and inciting hatred towards Ukraine and democracy.

"Everyone around, of course, wants peace. Including me. It's impossible to count how many people I helped through my channel who will never respond to me again. The only question is at what cost this peace will be achieved," the channel's author ambiguously writes.

This can be read in two ways: either as regret for the hundreds of thousands of Russian siloviks who became victims of imperial ambitions, or as a critique of Moscow's readiness to end the war without achieving its goals. Or both.

The growing losses of the Russian army led to the cessation of the Russian offensive. In 2025, Russia occupied less than 1% of Ukrainian territory at the cost of losing approximately 150,000 soldiers killed. Over 10 months of 2026, Russia occupied about 0.1% of the territory, while losses exceeded those of the previous year. Such a cost of advancement may be unacceptable even for dehumanized Russian society.

The ambivalent rhetoric of US President Donald Trump gave the Kremlin hope that it would be able to entice Washington into dividing Europe into spheres of influence in exchange for allowing American corporations to develop Russian natural resources. The attack by the US and Israel on Iran led to a jump in energy prices, which not only brought super-profits to American oil and gas companies but also replenished the Russian military budget. However, assistance from European countries compensated Ukraine for the loss of American support, and the Ukrainian army held its ground. And the failure of Trumpists in the congressional elections ultimately cast doubt on the Kremlin's hopes.

It is significant that Moscow and Washington postponed a new round of negotiations on Ukraine until after the congressional elections.

A week before the negotiations, Ukraine struck seven Russian oil refineries, disabling up to 30 percent of their capacity. As a result, starting Monday, November 9, Rosneft imposed restrictions on fuel sales at all gas stations in Russia.

At the negotiations in Abu Dhabi, NATO's Commander of Forces in Europe, General Alexus Grinkevich, was present for the first time – a sign that Moscow agreed to more substantive discussions. A European delegation also arrived for the negotiations for the first time, with whom the Ukrainian side coordinates its actions.

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