The End of "Peace" with Lukashenka: How Yermak's Resignation Influenced Ukraine's Course Regarding Belarus

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in Vilnius on January 25. Photo: Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

On January 25 in Vilnius, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the first time held a meeting with the Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, whom he had carefully avoided meeting until then. Moreover, he not only spoke but also promised to positively resolve the issues raised by the Belarusian side. He also invited Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to Kyiv.

At the same time, the initiative for the meeting came specifically from the Ukrainian side, which is quite uncharacteristic for relations with the Belarusian opposition.

The reason for such a sharp change in Kyiv's policy may be internal — the previous head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, was an opponent of such contacts.

At the same time, cooperation with the Belarusian opposition is now more necessary for Ukraine than ever.

Since the United States has now taken a course towards gradually lifting sanctions from Belarus, and at the same time — towards withdrawing self-proclaimed President Alyaksandr Lukashenka from diplomatic isolation, inviting him to be part of the newly created Peace Council.

This significantly increases risks for both democratic Belarus and Ukraine, which are best resisted together. This is why, with the assistance of the Belarusian opposition, Ukraine can initiate the procedure for placing Lukashenka on an international wanted list.

Revisiting Yermak's "Legacy"

A brief handshake at a public event in the German city of Aachen in May 2023. It's hard to believe, but such "communication" remained the only personal interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya until now.

It cannot be said that there were no contacts at all — Tsikhanouskaya's representatives periodically arrived in Ukraine, held meetings at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the President's Office; until last year, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs included the position of Ambassador-at-Large for Belarus. However, all attempts by the Belarusian side to organize Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's visit to Kyiv ended in refusal.

The official explanation for this was a series of not-so-friendly statements towards Ukraine made by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya during the 2020 presidential elections. However, she later significantly adjusted her position, and with the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, she unconditionally sided with Ukraine.

Nevertheless, official Kyiv preferred to ignore this, either by disregarding relations with the Belarusian opposition or even by trying to artificially create a dialogue partner from the Belarusian side based on the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment — Belarusian volunteers fighting as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This disregard did not take into account that such steps only further divide and weaken the Belarusian opposition.

Another telling fact: for almost a year, there has been no Ambassador-at-Large for Belarus in Ukraine — as if this direction is not important to us.

That is why the very fact of the meeting in Vilnius demonstrates a shift in Kyiv's course.

"Many experts, and I agree with them, link this change to the change in the head of the President's Office," acknowledges Ihor Kyzym, former Ambassador-at-Large for Belarus.

EuroPravda had previously heard a similar opinion repeatedly from representatives of the presidential office and the government — that Andriy Yermak was directly opposed to such ties.

The reasons for such a policy were explained as follows: the Belarusian democratic team is weak and fragmented, with conflicts periodically flaring up. Therefore, cooperation with Tsikhanouskaya's team would not strengthen Ukraine in any way, but instead would create additional risks on the Belarusian border.

"I don't know if there's any reason to speak of a 'secret deal'; most likely not. However, there was a belief that if Lukashenka was not provoked unnecessarily, he would not get more deeply involved in the war against Ukraine. And although last year — after it became known about Russia's plans to deploy 'Oreshnik' missiles in Belarus — it became definitively clear that this logic did not work, they were unwilling to abandon it," explains Ihor Kyzym.

Belarus to Europe, Lukashenka to the Wanted List

"Lukashenka's white spitz has more rights than the people of Belarus," this phrase by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which resonated in his speech in Vilnius, turned out to be the most quoted.

However, another message of this speech was more important.

"I want to say separately to the people of Belarus. You are a European people who will be together with all our peoples in a united, free Europe. A peaceful Europe. A strong Europe. You cannot be erased. None of us can be erased," declared the Ukrainian president.

The meeting in Vilnius, attended not only by Zelenskyy but also by Polish President Karol Nawrocki, was dedicated to commemorating the participants of the 1863-1864 uprising.

Present-day Belarus was the center of this uprising, and its leader was the national hero of Belarus, Kastuś Kalinoŭski. This means that the format of the events made the presence of the Belarusian side mandatory (of course, not Lukashenka's side, where everything related to the uprising against Russia and Kalinoŭski has been actively destroyed in recent years).

However, even in such a situation, Kyiv could have minimized contacts with Tsikhanouskaya. But exactly the opposite happened!

For the first time, Kyiv itself initiated Zelenskyy's conversation with Tsikhanouskaya.

"I thanked him for his historic speech, a third of which was dedicated to Belarus. I am very grateful — it was a historic speech. I said that many Belarusians in Lithuania and Poland fought in Ukraine, and many are still fighting. This is our common cause. I asked for the appointment of a special representative for Belarus instead of Mr. Kyzym, so that we would have more people for close cooperation," Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya recounted about the meeting with Zelenskyy.

And she added that the Ukrainian president agreed on the need to appoint a diplomat for the Belarusian direction.

However, according to "EuroPravda," the agreements went much further. In particular, the possibility of initiating criminal prosecution against Lukashenka was discussed. A step that would definitively close any opportunities for backroom deals with the Belarusian dictator.

Preventing Lukashenka from Emerging from Isolation

The dialogue between Ukraine and the democratic forces of Belarus began at a moment when self-proclaimed President Alyaksandr Lukashenka received the most realistic chance in years of full-scale war to emerge from international isolation and have a significant part of sanctions lifted.

Recall that last December, Lukashenka agreed to release the most prominent political prisoners, including Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski. In response, the US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash.

Then, Trump's special envoy John Cole believed that the remaining political prisoners — of whom there are still about a thousand in Belarus — could be released within a month.

And although this ambitious prediction did not materialize, Washington has not lost interest in contacts with Lukashenka.

Donald Trump even invited him (as well as Vladimir Putin) to join the Peace Council — and unlike most European leaders, Lukashenka immediately accepted this invitation.

All this suggests that the process of withdrawing Lukashenka from international isolation will continue.

In particular, Minsk hopes that the Trump administration will help them organize potash transit — because without it, the lifting of sanctions will not have a positive effect on the economy.

Traditionally, Belarusian potash was imported in transit through Lithuania to the port of Klaipėda, but it is far from certain that even the current, much more pragmatic Lithuanian government will agree to unblock the transit.

Ukraine could be an alternative route for Belarusian potash. As absurd as it may sound, Lukashenka's regime does not hide its hopes that such transit could be stipulated in a future peace agreement.

In such a scenario, Ukraine needed to send a clear signal: similar deals behind our backs are unacceptable and will not be recognized by us. Establishing contacts with Tsikhanouskaya's office can be considered precisely such a signal.

"Ultimately, Ukraine did nothing extraordinary. Tsikhanouskaya is recognized as the democratic leader of Belarus throughout Europe, and we have simply finally joined the common European position," summarizes Ihor Kyzym.

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