Russian army's advance rates in Ukraine fell to a minimum since last spring.

In January, the Russian forces conducted the most active combat operations in the section between Siversk and Kostiantynivka in the north of Donetsk Oblast, where they managed to occupy about 59.6 square kilometers. Another 37.6 square kilometers were captured in the Pokrovsk area, and about 36 square kilometers — in the southern sector of the front, primarily also in Donetsk Oblast.

However, between January 19 and 25, Russia's advance sharply slowed: during this week, only 30.4 square kilometers came under its control — this is the lowest figure since spring 2025. For comparison, in mid-March last year, Russia occupied 22.5 square kilometers in a week. By the end of January, Russian forces advanced 10.7 square kilometers in the Kostiantynivka area, 6.4 near Pokrovsk, and 7 in the southern sector of the front.

Overall, January showed significantly worse results for the Russian offensive than previous months. In December, according to DeepState, Russia captured 423 square kilometers, and in November — 489.

Ruslan Leviev, founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), noted that a peculiar "conditional pause" on the front began already in late December. In his opinion, an anti-record could be set in early February if the Russian advance is almost imperceptible throughout the entire month.

Analysts attribute the slowdown of the offensive primarily to winter conditions. Military expert Kyrylo Mykhailov noted that frosts do not favor infantry operations, although they make conditions more convenient for drone use. Leviev gave a similar assessment, emphasizing that in winter, with short daylight hours and frosts, combat operations traditionally slow down.

In addition, in December, the Russian army actively advanced in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Huliaipole, but this advance has now almost stopped. One of the CIT analysts suggested that the Ukrainian General Staff might have strengthened the defense of this sector and corrected previous errors.

The Finnish OSINT project Black Bird Group also links the decrease in the pace of the offensive to the weather, battles in the Mirnohrad, Pokrovsk, and Huliaipole areas, as well as successful Ukrainian counter-offensive actions near Kupiansk.

The slowdown of the offensive is occurring against the backdrop of intensified peace negotiations. Last weekend, the first trilateral meeting took place in Abu Dhabi, which did not yield concrete agreements, but, according to observers, showed signs of cautious progress.

Previously, Russia used battlefield successes as an argument in negotiations, seeking the transfer of the entire Donbas to its control. In autumn, Vladimir Putin repeatedly met with military personnel, after which he stated that Russia was capable of achieving its goals militarily. However, such statements have not been heard from him lately.

Instead of intensifying the offensive on the front, Russia has increased its strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. After the start of negotiations in the UAE, Russian forces launched the most powerful strike on Kyiv in a month, leading to a critical situation in the country's energy system, close to a humanitarian catastrophe.

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