In June and July, Russia intensified the destruction of gas stations, fuel trucks, and oil depots in the border regions of Ukraine and even deep within its territory. What is this being done for and what effect will it have? Gas stations, especially near combat zones, have been under attack from both sides almost since the first days of the full-scale war. However, this year the situation has changed, writes Oleh Chernysh, an analyst at the Ukrainian BBC service.
At the end of spring, the Russian army began a systematic campaign to destroy Ukrainian gas station complexes, and in June and July, it increased strikes against them. In some cities, all gas stations were damaged.
For attacks, Russians use both small FPV drones and powerful long-range "Shaheds" (also known as "Geran"), "Gerbera", and "Molniya" drones.
Such strikes often lead to casualties.
For example, on the evening of July 9, 5 people were injured due to a Russian UAV strike on a gas station in Zaporizhzhia, and on June 5, in the village of Posad-Pokrovske near Kherson, 2 civilians (a gas station employee and a customer) died, and another 5 were wounded.
All this has led to fuel market operators being forced to change their operating algorithms and strengthen the protection of gas stations not only within 100-150 km from the front, but also in other regions of the country.
One of the first decisions is that gas stations do not operate during air raid alerts, and customers are asked to spend as little time as possible at the stations.
Gas Stations: What and Where Destroyed
Since the beginning of the year, dozens of gas stations have come under attack in the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv regions.
In early July, Russians attacked several gas stations near Pyriatyn — a city in the Poltava region, 170 km from the border.
According to Andriy Pyvovarsky, former Minister of Infrastructure and now head of WOG, one of the largest gas station networks, as of June 25, 150 gas station complexes in Ukraine have "burned down" due to Russian attacks.
Serhiy Kuyun, director of the Consulting Group "A-95", notes that as of July 10, a total of 200 stations have already been affected.
According to him, major operators have suffered the biggest losses. OKKO company lost 4 oil depots and 9 gas stations, WOG — 22 facilities, "Ukrnafta" — 12. Overall, all fuel retail networks have suffered losses.
According to energy expert Hennadii Riabtsev, these estimates are slightly overstated. He believes that the number of attacked gas stations is half as many.
Riabtsev refers to official reports from the Ukrainian State Emergency Service (SES) regarding the elimination of the consequences of strikes on such facilities.
"I don't know why market operators overestimate the damage caused... If you count all the SES reports, you can count 89 damaged or destroyed gas stations since the beginning of the year. Yes, the problem exists, but there's no need to exaggerate it," he noted in a conversation with the Ukrainian BBC service.
He points out that a gas station complex is an object that is actually not easy to destroy with a single drone, as fuel tanks are most often located underground, and a drone strike only destroys the ground infrastructure of the station.
And even if we take the maximum estimates, during the period of regular attacks on gas stations, the Russians managed to damage about 3% of their total number nationwide.
But the fact is that in frontline territories, their operation is becoming increasingly dangerous, and sometimes even impossible.
This applies not only to problems with staff recruitment and equipment restoration but also to the direct delivery of fuel.
Serhiy Kuyun notes that due to Russian attacks, the situation with fuel trucks has become complicated. They are also under the sights of Russian drones.
"It's been hell on the frontline for a couple of months now, with hundreds of attacked facilities. Fuel truck drivers refuse to go there, as vehicles are also being hunted. What to do about this is unknown. They are trying everything, but at best, they manage to protect the personnel, while the facilities burn," he describes the situation.
Why Russia Does This and What the Effect Is
Hennadii Riabtsev believes that the key goal of this Russian strike campaign is propaganda. He sees no military logic in these attacks.
"They (the Russians, — Ed.) need to demonstrate something, anything, to offset the images of burning Russian oil refineries. They have no other "achievements," so they need to show something burning. Hence the strikes on warehouses and gas stations," the expert believes.
Mykola Lukashuk, Chairman of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council, says that strikes on gas stations are primarily "pressure on the civilian population."
"They strike so that ordinary people are even afraid to go to a gas station. Will this affect anything strategically? No, it won't. But it's clear that in frontline communities, it can, shall we say, complicate life, as people will have to travel elsewhere to refuel," he stated.
In pro-Russian Telegram channels, almost every strike on a gas station is accompanied by statements about an "impending fuel crisis" in Ukraine.
Currently, such statements do not correspond to reality.
Firstly, as noted above, it is difficult to destroy a gas station along with its fuel tanks. The most important thing is to avoid human casualties.
For this purpose, networks are already installing protective structures at individual stations for employee safety, and also restricting operating hours.
Secondly, the fuel market in Ukraine is so diversified that it allows crisis situations to be navigated without major disruptions.
"We have dozens of suppliers, various import routes, competition, and extensive logistics. If one link fails, others back it up," WOG explains.
As for the impact of these Russian attacks on the Ukrainian military sector, it is also minimal. Combat units have separate supplies and logistics, not tied to civilian deliveries of fuels and lubricants.
What needs to be done?
The Ukrainian government promises that it is doing everything to avoid a fuel crisis in the country.
"As of now, there is no fuel deficit for the civilian sector in Ukraine. The market is supplied, imported resources are being contracted, logistics are working," stated Minister of Economy Oleksiy Sobolev, reporting to parliament on July 3.
According to him, models of interaction between business and authorities in frontline regions regarding the delivery and sale of petroleum products are being developed.
As options for frontline regions, the minister named the establishment of mobile fuel sales points, as well as the creation of a fund for compensating network operators for damage to gas stations.
As for mobile points, meaning literally selling gasoline "from wheels," this initiative is being implemented in Trostianets, Sumy region, where Russian attacks destroyed all gas station complexes.
The local authorities there have already announced the deployment of a network of such mobile points, where fuel will be dispensed using small vehicles. The locations of these vehicles will be changed to prevent them from being hit.
However, on July 10, oil market expert Serhiy Kuyun reported that at a meeting between the Prime Minister and the heads of the largest fuel networks, it was decided to "postpone the idea of creating mobile gas stations."
According to his data, the concern is a possible decrease in fuel quality and problems with tax collection if such mechanisms are introduced.
Hennadii Riabtsev believes that there is no other way in this situation than to expand the retail market for petroleum products. Because Russia can, sooner or later, knock out all large stationary gas stations in the frontline zone.
"If these strikes continue... then we need to protect ourselves, and for that, we need to liberalize the retail market for petroleum products in the frontline regions. Remove excessive licensing, allow mobile refueling points, decentralize fuel storage points. That's what needs to be done," he told the Ukrainian BBC service.
It is unrealistic to install physical protection on every gas station or cover it with air defense, the specialist is convinced.
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