Can Ukraine destroy launch systems with Russian ballistic missiles?

Throughout July, Russia launched almost 200 ballistic missiles (including S-400 anti-aircraft missiles and hypersonic "Zircon"/"Oniks"), the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense states. This is a record since the start of the war.

According to the agency, 29 missiles were intercepted (the Air Force statistics state a different number – 10 ballistic missiles destroyed in July), which is about 15%.

However, in the first 10 days of August, Russians have already fired about 70 ballistic missiles at Ukraine. Only one was shot down.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urgently calls on Western partners to provide Kyiv with Patriot missiles, and he even explains the refusal or delay as an attempt to "put pressure on Ukraine."

Павялічыць

There are few ways left to solve the problem. There is talk of striking enterprises that produce components for ballistic missiles (which Ukraine has been trying to do with varying success for a long time) and attacking the launch systems that fire them.

"The military knows that they need to destroy enemy launchers to reduce strikes on Ukrainian strategic infrastructure. They are doing this and will continue to do so," Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on August 5.

However, implementing this idea is quite difficult.

Increasing Missile Threat

First, it is necessary to understand how many missiles and launch systems are involved.

The most massive volleys of Iskander ballistic missiles (also including S-400 and KN-23) that the Russian Federation carried out during July-August included about 24-29 missiles. That is, for the shelling, probably 12-15 launch systems (LS) were involved, each of which can fire two missiles.

The most massive launch of ballistic missiles during the war consisted of 34 missiles, meaning the Russians then engaged 17 LS.

Overall, according to analysts' estimates, Russia can simultaneously use 36 launch systems located near the Ukrainian border. That means the most massive ballistic volley could consist of about 70 missiles.

However, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russia has not yet reached a level of production that would ensure massive and regular shelling.

Vadym Skibitsky, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), says that as of August, Russia produces about 65 9M723 missiles for the Iskander-M complex per month, which is almost 10% higher than planned targets. In addition, the production of anti-ship hypersonic missiles "Zircon" and "Oniks," which fly along a quasi-ballistic trajectory, has significantly increased.

According to General Skibitsky, this growth is due to Russia halting the production of "Kinzhal" and Kh-32 missiles and reorienting capacities, as well as parts, to ballistic missile production.

Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brovdi (call sign "Madyar"), believes that the Russian Federation is currently capable of firing a volley of 77 ballistic missiles and plans to scale it up to 200 missiles in a single volley.

"Even if they manage to do only half of that, all of it will fly at us," he stated in an interview with AP.

In conditions where neither Ukraine nor even the entire Western world has the necessary number of anti-ballistic missiles, the most optimal solution seems to be to eliminate those conditional 20-30 Iskander launch systems that are actively used for these volleys in Russia.

What's the Difficulty?

However, there are a number of problems.

During the war, Ukraine has repeatedly attacked Russian launch systems with drones, including those for "Iskander-M," "Zircon," and S-400 ballistic missiles. In some cases, they were caught on the move, but most often they became targets while in storage bases.

For example, during April 2026, the Special Operations Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported several attacks on an Iskander operational-tactical missile complex (OTRC) storage base near Simferopol in Crimea.

In August 2025, Ukrainian military personnel struck Iskander launchers and loader vehicles in the Kursk region, and in September, a training ground with this equipment in the Krasnodar Krai. All this led to the destruction and damage of some of these complexes.

However, in addition to Russia producing new launch systems, it also applies additional measures to protect those OTRCs that operate directly near the Ukrainian border. This includes changing movement routes, launch sites, camouflage, active cover by electronic warfare (EW) systems, and air defense complexes.

Павялічыць

How this looks in practice: a convoy of six vehicles, which are part of the "Iskander-M" complex (launcher, transporter-loader vehicle, command and staff vehicle, information preparation point, maintenance support vehicle, and life support vehicle) departs from a hidden deployment point to launch positions. They are located at the launch point at a distance of 100-150-200 km from the Ukrainian border in the Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov regions or in Crimea.

Deployment of the crew and loading can take 15-20 minutes, followed by a volley of two ballistic missiles with an interval of 1-2 minutes, after which the vehicle leaves the area.

To successfully attack a Russian OTRC, Ukraine must either receive intelligence information in advance about the exact launch site, or possess weapons that can instantly destroy enemy equipment within 10-15 minutes of its detection.

Regarding detection, presidential advisor on technology Serhiy Beskrestnov (call sign "Flash") noted that Ukraine receives all information about ballistic missile launches or preparations for launches from partners.

"None of us knows and should not know how they obtain this information, but one does not have to be too smart to understand that the main source of information is satellite observation of launch points and a system for recording launch events," he stated.

That is, Ukraine receives information when Iskander launchers are already at the launch point, and there are about 15-20 minutes left until the vehicle leaves.

Павялічыць

In such a situation, the only weapon that can manage to eliminate an Iskander launcher in time is super-fast ballistic missiles capable of striking at 200-500 km.

Ukraine has two such variants under development – the "Sapsan" (Hrom-2) and FP-9 complexes. Their flight speed is 2000-2300 m/s. That is, they can cover the distance to Russian launchers in 2-4 minutes.

The only problem is that these complexes are currently in the testing phase, and developers announce the first combat launches, including the FP-9 missile, only for this autumn.

Another option is to destroy Russian "Iskanders" using middle-strike drones.

For example, the FP-2 drone can carry a warhead of almost 120-200 kg over a distance of up to 370 km. However, its speed is only 150-180 km/h. That is, it would cover a distance of about 300 km to a launcher in Russia in almost 2 hours.

Jet drone-missiles, for example, "Bars" or "Peklo," would cover this distance in 30-60 minutes. This is also not enough.

True, such an approach has a right to exist, but only on the condition that Ukraine detects the movement of "Iskander" complex vehicles or a launch site in advance, for example, with the help of a reconnaissance UAV, and launches its attack drones.

However, there is a high probability that the Russians will also notice the reconnaissance drone operating over their territory, suppress or shoot it down, or change the launch site.

If the American satellite system "Starlink" worked over Russian territory, Ukrainian military personnel could try to destroy "Iskander" launchers in motion while moving to or from positions. But the system's owner, Elon Musk, according to media reports, has not yet agreed to Ukraine activating satellite navigation over Russian territory.

Therefore, for now, destroying Russian ballistic missiles "on the ground" remains an extremely difficult task for Kyiv. It can only be solved before the winter period if Kyiv rapidly increases its own capabilities or receives urgent assistance from Western partners.

The Ukrainian OSINT project "Cyberboroshno" reported on August 10 that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had "carried out work" the day before to detect and destroy Iskander launch systems on Russian territory.

"Regarding Iskanders. Work was carried out overnight, we are awaiting objective control. From what is currently known - there was a raid (of drones, - Ed.), the launchers did not work as they should have, but this could have been due to the activity of our UAVs and the security measures taken," the message states.

Official sources have not published information about the probable destruction of Russian missile complexes.

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