Cuba has two to three weeks' worth of oil left

Illustrative photo. Photo: AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa

The American blockade of Venezuela and Washington's pressure on Mexico have deprived Cuba of its two main and stable sources of crude oil and fuel oil, which is used for electricity generation. Given the current level of consumption and very limited domestic fuel production, the situation appears critical.

According to Nicholas Watson, an expert at the consulting firm Teneo, without new supplies, the crisis could become so deep that it would threaten the very existence of the Cuban regime.

According to Kpler, this year Cuba received about 84,900 barrels of oil — from just one shipment from Mexico. On average, this is approximately 3,000 barrels per day, whereas in 2025 the country imported more than 37,000 barrels daily. If the January delivery is added to the approximately 460,000 barrels in storage at the beginning of the year, reserves will last only 15-20 days, according to Kpler analyst Viktoriia Grabenvöeger.

In addition to crude oil, Cuba has also almost run out of fuel oil. Until mid-2025, Venezuela remained its virtually sole supplier, but the last cargo arrived back in November.

On January 11, shortly after the last shipment from Mexico and amid US enforcement actions in Venezuela, Donald Trump publicly stated that Cuba would no longer receive oil. This week he also noted that the Cuban regime is "very close to collapse."

University of Texas expert Jorge Piñon warns: if new supplies are not resumed in the coming weeks, the country faces a serious economic and energy crisis.

Even without the oil blockade, Cuba is experiencing its most severe economic decline since 1959. According to demographer Carlos Albizu-Campos, about a quarter of the population — more than 2.7 million people — has left the country since 2020.

Previously, Venezuela supplied about 40% of Cuba's oil needs, and at preferential prices. The situation sharply deteriorated at the end of last year when the US imposed a naval blockade and began intercepting tankers carrying Venezuelan oil. One of the seized ships was carrying more than a million barrels to Cuba.

Last year, Mexico was Havana's main oil supplier, but now the US is insisting on an end to these supplies. Mexico finds itself in a difficult position due to Washington's threats and the upcoming review of the trade agreement between Mexico, the US, and Canada.

As Mexican energy consultant Gonzalo Monroy notes, Cuba was heavily dependent on Venezuela, and if Mexico now also stops exports under US pressure, the problems for the island will become extremely serious.

According to the Social Rights Observatory analytical center, about 90% of Cubans live in extreme poverty, and 70% cannot regularly provide themselves with even one full meal a day. Most respondents name food shortages and constant power outages, which in some regions last up to 18 hours or more, as the main problems.

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