Statkevich: The next "window of opportunity" may be the last for Belarusians

"I recently read a statement by a European politician that Belarusians will have a 'window of opportunity' for democracy and true independence. I completely agree with him, but such 'windows' have occurred more than once in our recent history," writes Mikalai Statkevich.

"The first time was after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the union republics, both those who fought for independence and those who did not fight for it at all – all became independent. But then, instead of building an independent country, the local leaders of that time, with the support of a bewildered majority, began to look for opportunities to return the country to its usual state as a satellite of Moscow.

The "window of opportunity" to build an independent, democratic, and successful state was not used.

It appeared a second time in the second half of the 90s, when Belarus was offered to join the European Union, which allowed it to receive funding for reforms and, in the medium term, transform Belarus into a free, modern, and prosperous country.

But the then head of state refused the offer, without even informing the public about it.

Then Russia recovered from the psychological trauma it suffered as a result of the collapse of its empire, and, reinforced by rising oil and gas revenues, returned to the traditional practice of subjugating neighboring peoples and incorporating them into the empire. Attempts by the peoples of neighboring states to establish democracy and strengthen independence were and are considered by the Kremlin as an encroachment on its fundamental interests. Large funds are allocated for the preservation of obedient regimes, and in case of a threat to their existence due to mass protests, Russian troops are sent to the borders or even into the territory of the "rebellious" country. According to some senior officers from the Ministry of Internal Affairs system, Russian security forces, disguised in Belarusian uniforms, participated in the suppression of mass protests in Belarus in 2020.

Moscow has done and continues to do everything to preserve the Belarusian regime for decades.

Now, due to the deadlock on the Russian-Ukrainian front, the existence of the current political regime in Russia is under threat. A change of power in the Kremlin, along with possible new threats, will also create chances for Belarusian democracy. Whether Belarus will use this "window of opportunity" depends, first of all, on Belarusian society, on Belarusians living in their own country.

A great responsibility lies on all of us, because this "window" may be the last for our nation. The views of the majority of us are obvious – democracy and independence.

Under the existing conditions, people cannot express their position publicly, because any form of self-organization is now severely persecuted, but if the situation changes, this self-organization will happen and manifest itself very quickly.

Perhaps the world will not recognize Belarusians again. But this will be a completely different non-recognition. Fear and hatred are a terrible mixture," concluded Mikalai Statkevich.

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