Shraibman believes that Belarus may be on the verge of a turning point.

Answering a question about the possibility of positive changes in the country in the medium term without a radical change of power, political analyst Artem Shraibman suggested looking at the situation through the prism of historical experience, recalling the situation in 2014-2015. Then, against the backdrop of the Minsk talks on Ukraine and Minsk's refusal to host a Russian airbase, a diplomatic detente began, which society did not fully realize at the time.

"It was a turning point. We may not have fully felt it at the time. Only, probably, when the sanctions were lifted in early 2016 (and suspended in mid-2015), it became clear that something was happening. (...)

In retrospect, it became a turning point. I have a feeling that we are now living through, entering a period that, with a good set of circumstances in the future, in 10 years (...) we will also call the beginning of a new turning point," Shraibman is sure.

The analyst notes that the input data is changing. The war in Ukraine, in his opinion, is moving towards a stage of settlement due to the exhaustion of the parties, and within Belarus "the practice of rare, insufficient, confusing, but pardons of political prisoners has normalized." "This was not the case until mid-2024. Now this is the main process in Belarusian politics."

In addition, the attitude of the West is changing. The analyst emphasizes that the United States has created a precedent for "pragmatic mini-exchanges" with Lukashenko, which is already being used by other players - the Vatican, Poland, Lithuania.

"This means that a new norm is being created. (...) This is less of a disgrace than before, of course. But the most important thing is that historically we have emerged from a certain local stagnation (...) and some kind of political movement has begun. (...) It seems to me that in retrospect, in 2030, we will be able to, (...) if a good scenario is implemented, (...), look at today as a turning point."

What a good scenario might look like

A positive scenario, according to Shraibman, is possible if the West's interest in interaction does not fade away, but expands to other players (the EU, the UK and even Ukraine). This will form a track of de-escalation, which will also affect domestic policy, as the current level of repression is incompatible with normalization.

"De-escalation will become the main process around which all politics revolves. (...) De-escalation, accordingly, according to the logic of its process, should include domestic policy as well. De-escalation will not happen with the same number of political prisoners.

They will either have to be reduced qualitatively, many times over, or this phenomenon will have to be eliminated altogether, moving to other forms of repression. This means hoping only for administrative repression instead of criminal repression, for intimidation, that is, some kind of softening of repressive policies."

The expert believes that Minsk may take such a step "if Lukashenko has enough incentives to continue this de-escalation." He cites the economy as one of these incentives:

"And incentives, in principle, may appear, because the Russian economy is no longer the same as it was 2-3 years ago."

Павялічыць

However, as the expert emphasizes, the success of the scenario depends on the attention of the West.

"Kazakhstan model" and the return of civic activity

If the process continues, Belarus may see a rejection of some repressive practices. At the same time, Shraibman warns against inflated expectations:

"I don't believe in a complete rollback of repression under Lukashenko, I don't believe in a return to 2019 or 2017, which was (...) the point of the lowest repression in the republic."

Instead, the expert sees the possibility of moving to a model of control similar to that existing in Kazakhstan - authoritarian, but without mass imprisonments:

"But we can return to the point of absence or almost absence of recognized political prisoners. When the authorities resort to other measures to control society. For example, the Kazakh authorities do not need such a number of criminal cases to maintain political loyalty and tranquility within the country. Although Kazakh society is also modern, developed, digitalized, and educated. Nevertheless, the Kazakh authorities can keep it in a politically calm state without hundreds of political prisoners."

According to the analyst, the Belarusian authorities may come to the conclusion that they are able to manage with less repression, receiving benefits in return in the West - unfreezing contacts or even lifting some sanctions.

Such a softening of the climate will lead to a resumption of civic activity. It will start with grassroots initiatives - local history, language, urban planning, as well as the revival of business communities.

"It can all grow. Just as it grew to a lesser extent, but according to similar patterns, in 2015, 2016, 2017. Then it can gradually move into areas that are taboo today - environmental activism,(...) gender organizations."

Shraibman emphasizes that he cannot call this scenario "the most likely", but it is possible, since it is compatible with the survival of the Lukashenko regime, with a "more or less controlled transition of power", and does not provoke criticism from Russia.

Neutral international players, such as the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank, which are able to support normalization with money, can also join the process.

"Therefore, in general, there is nothing impossible in this scenario even with today's political input. That is, under the Lukashenko regime, with the preservation of the security apparatus, with the preservation of repression, with the preservation of orientation towards Russia, assistance to the Russian military-industrial complex, and so on.

But to one degree or another, this is replaceable if other variables add up in a good way. This is some kind of truce in Ukraine. (...) This is the preservation of focus on Belarus. (...) Will this path be easy and linear? Definitely not. But this is a scenario that I would not rule out for 5-7 years for sure."

Artem Shraibman estimated the probability of such a development path at 30-40%.

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