Russia accidentally disabled its only launch pad for manned flights.

The incident occurred on November 27 during the launch of the Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft from launch pad No. 31/6 of the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. The rocket successfully put into orbit the crew, which included Russian cosmonauts Sergei Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikaev, as well as NASA astronaut Chris Williams. All three successfully reached the ISS, where they are expected to stay for eight months.

What happened

However, as Ars Technica writes, shortly after the launch, the Russian space agency Roscosmos reported that damage to several elements of the launch complex was discovered during a routine post-launch inspection. Officials did not specify the nature of the damage, noting only that the damage is being assessed and will be repaired in the near future.

According to the publication, the situation may be more serious than officially reported. An eyewitness to the incident claims that a huge service platform fell into the gas exhaust duct (the so-called "fire trench" under the rocket) during the launch.

This structure, weighing about 20 tons, which is used by personnel to access the rocket before launch, was apparently not properly secured. The powerful thrust of the engines simply blew it down.

Strength test in wartime conditions

This incident has significant implications for Russian cosmonautics. Launch pad No. 31/6 is currently the only one in Russia that is technically ready for launching manned Soyuz spacecraft and Progress cargo ships. The historical launch pad No. 1 (Gagarin's Start) was recently decommissioned and is being turned into a museum. Although there are two operating cosmodromes in Russia - Vostochny and Plesetsk, neither of them can be quickly converted to meet the needs of the ISS program.

"In fact, from this day on, Russia has lost the ability to launch people into space, which has not happened since 1961," CNN quotes Russian space journalist Vitaly Yegorov.

Павялічыць

As Ars Technica writes, this incident has become a kind of test for the leadership of the Russian space industry in the context of the war in Ukraine, which is consuming significant resources of the country. Western experts note that Russia previously planned to maintain the operation of the station until 2030 with minimal investment, even reducing the number of manned missions from four every two years to three to save money.

Now Moscow will have to urgently look for funds and opportunities for complex repairs, which will demonstrate the real extent of their interest in international partnership.

Risks for the ISS

Particular concern at NASA is the possible cessation of flights of Progress cargo ships. These vehicles are critical not only for delivering cargo and correcting the altitude of the ISS orbit. They are also a key element of the station's orientation system: it is the thrust of the Progress engines that is used to "unload" American power gyroscopes, removing accumulated excess angular momentum from them.

Although American Dragon and Cygnus ships can theoretically take over some of these functions, a complete replacement of Russian cargo ships in the long term remains questionable.

It is currently unknown how long it will take to repair the damaged complex. According to Space News, in less than three weeks, on December 20, an unmanned Progress cargo ship is scheduled to be launched from the damaged launch pad. The next manned mission is scheduled for July 2026.

As experts note, the temporary loss of the only Russian launch pad inevitably increases the load on SpaceX. In a situation where the Starliner ship from Boeing still needs testing, the Falcon 9 rocket remains the only reliable means of delivering both people and cargo to the station.

Now Elon Musk's company may have to not only fulfill its contracts, but also insure the Russian segment of the ISS program while Baikonur is eliminating the consequences of the accident.

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