Trump wants to extract oil in Venezuela. How realistic is this and who will get it?

Photo: Jesus Vargas/Getty Images

"We are going to bring in our largest oil companies — the largest in the world — to spend billions of dollars, rebuild the destroyed infrastructure — the oil infrastructure — and start making money for the country," Trump said during a press conference on January 3 at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. "They will be reimbursed for their expenses."

Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven crude oil reserves but faces extraction challenges due to sanctions, aging infrastructure, and inefficient management.

Such a reconstruction of the oil industry would be virtually unprecedented, but, as Bloomberg notes, Trump left many important questions unanswered: how will the transition of power take place, with whom will the US cooperate, under what conditions can American oil companies return to the country, and most importantly — who will get Venezuelan oil if the US invests money in modernizing infrastructure destroyed by years of sanctions and poor management?

Trump did not commit to sending American troops to facilitate a transition of power in the country, stating only that his administration would help provide protection and improvement for the oil infrastructure.

It also remains unclear whom the US is counting on in Venezuela. At the press conference, Trump said that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had held talks with the country's Vice President Delcy Rodríguez. According to Trump, Rodríguez, appointed interim president by Venezuela's Supreme Court, expressed readiness to do "whatever the US asks." However, speaking on state television after Trump's statement, Rodríguez called Maduro "the only president of Venezuela" and added that the government was ready to defend itself.

Trump also said he had not spoken with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was banned from participating in the 2024 presidential elections but played an important role in mobilizing support for Maduro's rival, who the opposition believes won the election.

The US President said that Machado "lacks the support and respect within the country" necessary to govern Venezuela.

Reviving the oil industry

Venezuela, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), has vast oil reserves of 303 billion barrels, accounting for approximately one-fifth of global reserves. Analysts and traders believe that restoring critical infrastructure in the country could take several years.

Low oil prices are another deterrent, especially given the level of investment that might be required. The US President has repeatedly stated that he values low oil and gasoline prices as he seeks to curb inflation and address rising living costs. Oil prices ended 2025 with their sharpest annual decline since 2020.

Trump's plan for Venezuela aligns with his broader vision of US energy dominance, where American companies not only ensure record domestic oil and gas production but also exert influence on the global market.

However, the scale of reconstruction work needed is enormous. To revive Venezuela's oil industry, companies will need to restore the country's neglected oil infrastructure, which has suffered for decades from inefficient management, corruption, and a lack of investment. Millions of people have left the country, including skilled oil workers who now work in the US, the Middle East, and Europe.

According to experts, billions of dollars will be needed just to stabilize existing production for well repairs, power supply, water supply, and export infrastructure repairs.

Venezuelan state oil and gas company PDVSA claims that its pipelines have not been updated for 50 years, and the cost of updating infrastructure to return to peak production levels would be $58 billion.

Major oil companies

It is unclear to what extent oil giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips, and others are willing to invest significant amounts of money in a country where a US-backed interim government operates without defined legal and fiscal norms.

Chevron, currently the only American oil company still involved in oil extraction and refining in Venezuela, stated that it would continue to operate in "full compliance with all applicable laws and regulations," but did not comment on expansion plans.

ConocoPhillips stated that it is monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supplies and stability, adding that "it is too early to speculate about future business activity or investments."

Chevron is in a favorable position to help unlock more Venezuelan oil, as it already extracts about 20% of the country's oil, operating for most of the last decade under a sanctions exemption granted by the US government.

Exxon and ConocoPhillips also have experience working in Venezuela but left the country after the nationalization of their assets in the mid-2000s by Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chávez, for which they are still owed billions in compensation. Exxon previously stated that it would consider investing in Venezuela, but only if appropriate conditions were met.

Analysts suggest that a strong economy and higher oil prices in the coming years could also encourage other companies, which have so far remained on the sidelines, to reconsider working in Venezuela if the situation in the country begins to stabilize and concessions are offered to them.

Francisco Monaldi, Director of Latin American Energy Policy at Rice University in Houston, believes it is unlikely that major Western oil companies will engage in negotiations until political stability and clarity in legal norms are achieved in the country. There are doubts that investors will rush to Venezuela, given decades of instability and the scale of investment required in the country's oil sector.

"We are talking about huge capital. Just to maintain production at current levels until 2040 would require about $65 billion, and to restore Venezuelan production to 2 million barrels per day would require over $100 billion," quotes the Financial Times Schreiner Parker, an analyst at energy consulting firm Rystad. "This is not something American companies will be rushing into hours after an intervention."

Uncertainty with supplies

The oil market is also interested in what will now happen with Venezuelan oil supplies — in mid-December, the US began seizing vessels transporting oil.

Trump stated that the oil blockade remains in force. But it is already clear that he wants a US-backed administration to revive the country's oil industry, returning it to its former heights of the mid-20th century, when Venezuela was the world's largest exporter and a founding member of OPEC.

On Saturday, the US President stated, without going into details, that America would sell "large volumes" of oil to current buyers and additional clients. Trump suggested that revenues from the sale of Venezuelan oil could help fund various objectives — from compensating the US government's expenses in the country to compensating oil companies that faced disruptions in regional operations and asset confiscations. Trump promised that Venezuelans, both inside and outside the country, would also be "taken care of."

According to Kpler, a company that tracks shipping data, Venezuela currently extracts about 800,000 barrels of oil per day, which accounts for less than 1% of global production.

If sanctions are lifted, production could increase by approximately 150,000 barrels per day within a few months, but returning to levels of 2 million barrels per day or higher would require "large-scale reforms" and significant investments from international oil companies.

The question of assets of other countries in Venezuela also remains. Spanish Repsol, Italian Eni SpA, and French Maurel et Prom SA still operate in Venezuela and are partners of the state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela SA in oil and gas projects.

"Chinese companies have invested significantly in Venezuela's infrastructure (energy, telecommunications), so attempts to exclude Chinese investments and operators from the country could lead to unforeseen consequences," said Michal Meidan, Director of the China Energy Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Venezuela's oil potential

The extraction of oil that Venezuela possesses — heavy, sulfurous crude oil — requires specialized equipment and a high level of technical expertise.

The United States, the world's largest oil producer, mainly extracts light oil, which is only well suited for gasoline production. Heavy sulfurous oil, such as Venezuela's, is very important for producing certain products during the refining process, including diesel fuel, asphalt, and fuel for plants and other heavy equipment.

Diesel fuel is currently in short supply worldwide — largely due to sanctions against Venezuelan oil.

The return of Venezuelan oil to the world market could be particularly beneficial for the US: Venezuela is geographically close, and its oil is relatively cheap. Most US refineries were built to process heavy oil from Venezuela, and they are significantly more efficient when using Venezuelan oil compared to American oil.

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