Why is Merz so reserved in his reaction to Trump's attempt on Greenland? Because Germany is most dependent on the USA

Friedrich Merz and Donald Trump. Photo: Suzanne Plunkett, Pool Photo via AP

Friedrich Merz is carefully choosing his words these days. Usually known for his rather direct and sharp statements, the German Federal Chancellor has reacted cautiously to US President Donald Trump's threats regarding the crisis around Greenland. Unlike other leaders of the "European troika" — Germany, France, and Great Britain — the Chancellor has so far refrained from sharp declarations.

Merz is apparently waiting for a personal meeting with Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, as well as an extraordinary European Union summit on January 22. In Brussels, Europe's response to Trump's announced 10-percent tariffs on goods from eight European countries will be discussed, against the backdrop of the US President's persistent offers to buy the world's largest island and hints of readiness to annex it.

Why is the head of government of Europe's strongest economic power so reserved? Observers and experts explain this by Germany's dependence on the USA, which formed after the Second World War and is generally stronger than that of other countries.

How the German army and special services depend on the USA

Against the backdrop of Russia's war against Ukraine, now in its fourth year, Germany depends on the military might of the USA more than at any time since the end of the Cold War. This includes American nuclear weapons stationed on its territory, and the largest American contingent in Europe — about 50,000 military personnel. Meanwhile, the German army, after decades of austerity and cutbacks, has only just begun rearmament and increasing its numbers. This will take at least several years.

Even more pronounced is the dependence on specific types of weaponry. While Germany produces its own tanks, artillery, ships, and submarines, in aviation, and even more so in missile technology, Germans depend on "Made in USA" weapons. This includes dozens of recently ordered modern F-35 fighter jets, which have no European analogues, Boeing CH-47 Chinook transport helicopters, and the Patriot air defense system. Germany also wants to purchase the Typhon medium-range missile system from the USA; the development of European missiles of this type is still ongoing.

Ultimately, the German army and special services critically depend on American guidance systems, space reconnaissance, and digital data collection. A significant portion of terrorist attacks prevented in Germany are due to American special services sharing information with Berlin.

Hundreds of thousands of jobs in Germany depend on the USA

The dependence in the economy is even stronger. Although Germany has lost its title as the world champion in exports, yielding to China, it remains an export-oriented economy. The USA is Germany's main trading partner. Berlin's dependence on the American market is higher than that of other "Group of Eight" countries threatened by Trump with tariffs.

According to the Federal Statistical Office, from January to November 2025, Germany supplied goods worth 135.8 billion euros to the USA. However, this figure has fallen significantly — by approximately 10% compared to the same period in 2024. This is explained by the introduction of a 15-percent tariff for EU countries. Imports of goods from the USA to Germany continue to lag, although they grew by 2.2%, totaling 86.9 billion euros over 11 months.

Exactly one year ago, in January 2025, a study by the Prognos institute, reported by Süddeutsche Zeitung, predicted Germany risking the loss of up to 300,000 jobs if Trump's tariff plans were implemented. At that time, the worst-case scenario was avoided, as the EU and USA reached an agreement. Now, this agreement is under threat due to the conflict over Greenland.

In total, the Prognos institute estimated that about 1.2 million jobs in Germany, roughly one in ten, are subject to varying degrees of dependence on trade with the USA. After several years of recession, Germany recorded a slight economic growth in 2025, but new tariffs could jeopardize the Merz government's plans to make it sustainable.

Above all, the German pharmaceutical industry depends on the USA. Its share in Germany's total trade with America is approximately a quarter. Equally important export sectors include mechanical engineering, the automotive industry, aerospace technology, medical equipment, and the chemical industry.

Total dependence on digital giants from the USA

It's also worth mentioning Germany's increased dependence on American energy carriers in recent years. For example, the share of American liquefied natural gas (LNG) is 80%, although overall, LNG covers only about 10% of Germany's gas imports. The main part of the gas, as before, comes through pipelines, with Norway replacing Russia as the main supplier.

Periodically, Germany discusses its almost total dependence on American corporations in digital technologies — Microsoft, Google, Apple, Meta. Without their products, Germany's economy "would stop," writes Der Spiegel magazine in its latest issue.

Attempts to limit their influence at the European level have been modest, and there are few indigenous software developments. However, other European countries also share this dependence.

Finally, space should not be forgotten. Before the large-scale war against Ukraine, Germany actively used Russia's services for both delivering German astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) and launching satellites. Now, the lion's share of this market belongs to the USA.

American billionaire Elon Musk's company SpaceX launched 165 rockets into space in 2025. The new European launch vehicle "Ariane-6" made only four launches. And although in Germany, especially in Bavaria, startups in civilian rocket technologies have actively developed in recent years, they are still far from successful serial launches.

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