Timokh Akudovich launched his podcast. The first episode is about the Little Ice Age and how the cooling changed the course of history
Can ordinary weather destroy a powerful state or force an entire continent to change its economic structure? In the first episode of the "Magister Svita Naleva-Pashyta" podcast, historian Timokh Akudovich explores the phenomenon of the Little Ice Age – a global cooling that became the backdrop for some of the bloodiest events in the history of Belarus and Europe. We explain how a temperature drop of just one degree helped the Grand Duchy of Lithuania fight the crusaders, why it intensified the oppression of peasants, and how the climate crisis transformed backward northern countries into world leaders.
David Vinckboons. Winter landscape with two sailing vessels on the ice near a castle. Circa 1615. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
According to the author, modern climate reconstructions show that from the 14th century, the average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere began to gradually decrease, reaching a minimum in the 17th century, when the average annual temperature dropped by approximately one degree Celsius. At first glance, this figure seems insignificant, but, as Akudovich emphasizes, in the scale of global ecology, one degree is a colossal shift. The period from the 14th to the 18th century is commonly referred to in historical science as the Little Ice Age, although its peak falls precisely in the 17th century.
The study of these changes became possible due to the development of paleoclimatology — the science that studies past climates. As the author notes, already in 1939, geologist François Emile Matthes introduced the term "Little Ice Age" itself, and in the 1970s, British researcher Hubert Lamb proposed the first large-scale reconstruction of European temperatures over the last millennium. The work of historian Geoffrey Parker, "Global Crisis," which views 17th-century events as linked to global climate change, played a special role in popularizing the topic.
Where does the data come from?
According to Akudovich, historians use two main types of sources when studying the past. On one hand, there are written records: chronicles, annals, economic records, and even works of art.
Pieter Bruegel the Elder. Winter Landscape with Skaters and a Bird Trap. 1565. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
The second source of information is specific natural artifacts. Geology and dendrochronology are most often involved in this. Climate changes affect everything: from how trees grow to how various minerals are formed. Scientists have invented countless methods that allow them to determine past temperature fluctuations based on these changes in the structure of trees, stones, or other minerals.
These methods allow for more precise determination of temperature fluctuations, although discussions still exist here. Nevertheless, as the author emphasizes, modern science generally agrees: in the 14th–17th centuries, humanity indeed faced a sharp climatic challenge.
The First Phase of the Little Ice Age
The first phase of the Little Ice Age began in the early 14th century. Before this, Europe had experienced relatively warm weather for a long time: grapes were grown in England, and high yields in Scandinavia contributed to demographic growth and Viking expansion. But already in 1303, the Baltic Sea froze, and in 1315, the Great Famine, caused by prolonged rains and crop failures, swept across Europe.
As a result, an estimated 10 to 25 percent of Europe's urban population died. This led to social shifts, including the intensification of serfdom, although the subsequent plague epidemic radically changed the situation by reducing the population and strengthening the position of peasants in the West – landowners were forced to negotiate fair wages with peasants.
In the lands of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, as Akudovich notes, the situation looked different. There are significantly fewer studies here, but indirect evidence from chronicles and dendrochronology indicates that cooling and increased precipitation also affected this region. However, lower population density, large forest areas, and weak urbanization softened the blow. Moreover, German chronicles preserve descriptions showing that harsh winters and rainy weather complicated crusades into the still pagan lands of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania in the 14th century.
Climate reconstructions for the period 1000–2000 AD. The Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age are noted. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
What were the causes of the cooling?
Reflecting on the causes of the cooling, the author lists the main hypotheses. According to one of them, the cause of the cooling was a decrease in the water temperature of the Gulf Stream, on which the climatic situation in Europe directly depends.
There are versions that volcanic eruptions could be the cause of global cooling. Ash emissions into the atmosphere could temporarily reduce the amount of sunlight and cause prolonged periods of cooling. It is known that major volcanic eruptions occurred in the 14th century and at the end of the 16th century, i.e., during the peak moments of cooling.
Another hypothesis is related to reduced solar activity. Periods of cooling coincide with a lower number of sunspots.
Currently, a very popular theory suggests that at least the cooling of the 16th century might have been human-induced. According to this theory, the European colonization of America and the mass death of the indigenous population from introduced diseases led to a decrease in agricultural activity — local residents stopped massively burning American jungles. The regrowth of large forest areas influenced global climatic processes.
The Second Phase of the Little Ice Age
A brief climatic stabilization in the 15th — early 16th century gave Europe a respite, but around 1580, the Baltic Sea froze again. There is evidence that the Thames, the Dutch coast, and even Venice froze at that time. Glaciers in the Alps began to advance on villages, and settlements in Greenland finally disappeared.
Abraham Hondius. The Frozen Thames. 1677. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
All this became a prologue to the catastrophe of the 17th century. According to Akudovich, the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648) was not only a religious conflict but also the result of a deep economic crisis caused by declining crop yields. Mass bankruptcies of small farms, migration of hungry peasants to cities, and rising social tensions created conditions in which violence became the norm.
Similar processes also affected the lands of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, where the "Bloody Deluge" (1654–1667) led to the death of, possibly, half of Belarus's population.
Although fewer statistical data have been preserved for the Grand Duchy of Lithuania than for Western Europe, paleoclimatologists are confident that the logic of weather's influence on politics was the same for everyone.
As Timokh Akudovich explains, a fundamental economic division occurred in Europe in the second half of the 16th century. Landowners in England and the Netherlands quickly realized that due to the cold, previous crop yields would no longer be possible. They began to seek new ways of earning money: the English turned to sheep farming and wool export, while the Dutch created a flower cultivation industry and a powerful merchant fleet.
These countries compensated for the grain shortage by importing from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which became the "granary of Europe" for a long time. However, according to the author, this status came at great social cost to our region. Yields in the Grand Duchy of Lithuania during the peak of cooling in the 17th century halved. If previously five grains were harvested from one sown grain, now it was only two or three, which was barely enough for food and the next sowing.
Unlike their Western neighbors, who modernized their economies, local landowners chose an extensive path. They began to increase cultivated areas and intensify the oppression of peasants. While in the 16th century serfdom might have been two days a week, by the 18th century it grew to five or more. It was these slave-like working conditions and permanent famine that triggered the Cossack wars. People massively fled to Zaporizhzhia, which ultimately led to a large-scale catastrophe — the Bloody Deluge.
Two Faces of the Ice Age
Summarizing the impact of the Little Ice Age, the author distinguishes two of its phases. The first phase in the 14th century struck the still weak state organization of European countries and led to famine, epidemics, and a large number of deaths. The second phase occurred when states were much better organized. Therefore, in the 17th century, few people died directly from famine anymore.
To withstand the weather, European states were forced to centralize even further. Large conscript armies began to emerge, and various scientific research intensified, some of which contributed to increasing rye yields, while others increased the lethality of firearms. The result of all this was great human casualties, comparable to the first phase of the ice age. But now, people were being killed by people themselves.
Formally, the Little Ice Age lasted until the beginning of the 19th century. But in the 18th century, temperatures in Europe increased, harvests, though still insufficient, grew, and states became so strong that they could withstand various natural disasters.
According to researchers' observations, the countries most affected by climate change — England, the Netherlands, and Sweden — became flagships of development. For example, Sweden, with poor soils and a harsh climate, built a superefficient state machine and army, launching military expansion southwards for resources. At the same time, Spain and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which were in more favorable conditions, became mired in conservatism and serfdom, beginning to lag behind their neighbors.
Does climate really rule history?
In conclusion of this podcast episode, Timokh Akudovich focuses on a critique of paleoclimatological approaches, where theories exist that attempt to explain everything by weather: from witch hunts and the discovery of America to the Time of Troubles in Russia. However, the scientific community warns against excessive enthusiasm for such conclusions.
Akudovich draws attention to a study published last year in Poland. It refutes the old thesis that the economy of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth collapsed in the 17th century precisely due to climate change. The study states that wars and political decisions of the elites had a greater impact. At the same time, the same study acknowledges that climate influence was present, and it was quite significant.
The author suggests viewing climate not as a driver but as an accelerator of history. Large-scale cataclysms merely hasten trends that have already matured in society. As an example, Akudovich cites the 2020 pandemic: it did not create online communication, but it made them an integral part of our lives in a matter of months. Similarly, the Little Ice Age forced humanity to choose more quickly between progress and decline.
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