To enable Ahmadinejad to seize power in Iran, Israel and the US destroyed guards who kept him under house arrest

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. June 2, 2024. Photo: AP Photo / Vahid Salemi

As writes The New York Times, in the early days of the war, Donald Trump publicly stated that Iran should be led by "someone from inside the country." But few could have imagined that he was referring specifically to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — the former president of Iran, one of the most hardline and anti-Western leaders in the country's history.

Why Ahmadinejad?

As the author notes, the choice of Ahmadinejad seemed extremely strange. Although he had increasingly clashed with the country's leadership recently and was under close surveillance by Iranian authorities, during his presidency from 2005 to 2013, he was known for calls to "wipe Israel off the map." Ahmadinejad denied the Holocaust, claimed there were "no gays" in Iran, spoke at the "World Without Zionism" conference, and brutally suppressed internal protests.

At the same time, in recent years, Ahmadinejad increasingly clashed with the Iranian leadership. He was thrice — in 2017, 2021, and 2024 — disqualified from presidential elections. He openly accused the authorities of corruption and mismanagement, and his movements were severely restricted. The regime began to consider him a potentially destabilizing element.

According to the author, this is precisely what made him interesting to the US and Israel. American officials said that there were people within the Iranian regime willing to cooperate with Washington, even if they could not be called "moderates." Trump himself at the time was satisfied with the operation against Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and believed that a similar model could be repeated in Iran.

An associate of Ahmadinejad told the NYT that the Americans saw him as a person capable of controlling the "political, social, and military situation" in Iran. The interlocutor even compared him to Delcy Rodríguez, who took power in Venezuela after Maduro's capture by the Americans and has since collaborated closely with Trump.

Bold Plan

According to American officials, the Israelis developed a multi-stage scenario for overthrowing theocratic rule in Iran. It included massive US and Israeli air strikes, the assassination of the country's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the use of Kurdish forces against the Iranian army, information operations, and creating the impression that the regime was losing control over the country. As a result, it was assumed that an "alternative government" would emerge in Iran.

One of the key figures in this plan was the former president of Iran. As the NYT claims, citing American sources, this idea was developed by the Israelis and pre-approved by Ahmadinejad himself.

As the NYT notes, the Israeli strike on the former Iranian president's home in Tehran on the first day of the war was not intended to kill him, but to free him from custody.

The strike targeted the guard post at the entrance to the cul-de-sac where the former president lived. The house itself was barely damaged, but the guard building was destroyed — this was later confirmed by satellite images.

According to the NYT, those killed were not just Ahmadinejad's bodyguards, but members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who simultaneously guarded him and effectively kept him under house arrest. Initially, Iranian media even reported the former president's death, but state agencies later clarified that he survived.

A March article in The Atlantic, citing anonymous associates of Ahmadinejad, stated that the former president was successfully freed from custody after the strike on his home. The article described it as a "de facto prison break operation." This information was also confirmed by an associate of Ahmadinejad in a comment to the NYT: the ex-president indeed perceived the strike as an attempt to free him.

Failure

However, the operation did not go according to plan. During the strike, Ahmadinejad was wounded. As the NYT writes, citing an associate of the former Iranian president, having narrowly escaped death, he became disillusioned with the regime change plan.

Despite being effectively freed, Ahmadinejad has not appeared publicly since the strike. His current whereabouts and health status remain unknown.

Павялічыць

Photo: Fatemeh Bahrami / Anadolu via Getty Images

As the NYT concludes, almost nothing of the Israeli plan succeeded. Apart from the airstrikes and the elimination of the supreme leader, the other elements of the operation failed. The Iranian regime withstood the first months of the war, and the US and Israeli calculations for a rapid collapse of power proved erroneous.

Nevertheless, Mossad chief David Barnea claimed in conversations with colleagues that the plan still had "very high chances of success" if it had been allowed to be fully implemented.

As the NYT writes, it is still unclear how Ahmadinejad was drawn into this plan. A Mossad spokesman declined to comment.

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