Due to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, gasoline supplies from Belarus to Russia have sharply increased

Illustrative photo. Photo: «Nasha Niva»

A particularly noticeable increase occurred in the second half of the month: within a few days, sales volumes almost quadrupled compared to the previous week. The most demanded brands were AI-92 and AI-95, with AI-100 slightly less popular.

The demand for Belarusian fuel is explained by the situation on the Russian market. There, a shortage of gasoline arose due to unplanned repairs at several oil refineries, caused by Ukrainian strikes on Russian military infrastructure. Seasonal growth in fuel consumption ahead of summer also had an impact. In such conditions, consumers are ready to purchase fuel from abroad, even if it costs more.

The price of Belarusian gasoline indeed significantly exceeds that of Russian gasoline. As of May 25, Belarusian AI-92 cost 96-97.5 thousand Russian rubles per ton, and AI-95 cost 104.7 thousand Russian rubles. At the same time, following the May 26 trading, AI-92 prices on the exchange, according to the index for the European part of Russia, increased by 0.01% to 67.44 thousand Russian rubles per ton, and AI-95 by 3.24% to 74.95 thousand Russian rubles per ton. The wholesale price of summer diesel fuel decreased by 1.69% to 66.16 thousand Russian rubles per ton.

Nevertheless, demand for Belarusian fuel persists, as not only prices but also the actual availability of fuel and speed of delivery play an important role here.

Experts note that the current supply scheme is not entirely efficient. It involves Russian oil being sent to Belarus, processed there, and then the finished gasoline returning to Russia. This model increases the final cost of the product. Therefore, despite the increase in supplies, their impact on the overall situation is limited.

Total import volumes from Belarus remain small compared to the needs of the Russian market, where approximately 40 million tons of gasoline are consumed annually. This means that Belarusian supplies can only partially address local problems, but are not capable of fully compensating for the shortage.

However, the situation in Russia is not yet considered critical. It is not as tense as, for example, at the end of 2025, when gasoline prices reached record highs. Nevertheless, risks remain. Some Russian plants are still not operating or are not operating at full capacity, and if demand continues to grow, this could lead to new problems.

It could become particularly difficult for independent gas station networks that do not have their own refining capabilities. They are already selling off their reserves and in the future may be forced either to buy fuel at unfavorable prices or even temporarily cease operations.

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