Historical +40.4°C in Pinsk — just a warm-up. Belarus is entering a new climatic era and will become a forest-steppe before our eyes

For almost sixteen years, the figure of +38.9°C remained a temperature record. This indicator, recorded on August 8, 2010, in Gomel and Lelchitsy, seemed to be the limit of Belarus's natural heat resistance. Before that, Vasilievichi was considered the hottest place, where the air reached +38.0°C back in post-war August 1946.

Official statistics, which have been kept for 145 years — starting from 1881 — recorded various fluctuations, but until June 29, 2026, no city had crossed the forty-degree mark. This psychological barrier was considered unattainable for our climate.

The climatic front was breached in the southwest, with the advance coming in waves. First, on June 28, Malorita updated the historical maximum for the first summer month — +37.6°C. However, the next day, something incredible happened: between 14:00 and 14:20, the weather station in Pinsk recorded an absolute maximum for the entire history of observations — a fantastic +40.4°C.

The capital of Polesia was joined by Drogichin (+38.4°C), Malorita (+38.3°C), and Brest (+38.1°C).

This event demonstrates an important geographical shift: the epicenter of extreme temperatures, which historically was located in the southeast, in the Gomel region, has now shifted to the Brest region.

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Such peak values are usually recorded in the second half of July or in August, when the ground and reservoirs are maximally heated. The fact that the absolute historical maximum was reached even before the start of the main hot season indicates the colossal energy potential of the atmosphere over the country this year.

Mechanics of the Celestial Oven

Traditionally, the climate of Belarus was determined by temperate latitude air masses, which freely moved over the flat terrain. However, now we are increasingly finding ourselves under the influence of a so-called blocking anticyclone.

According to explanations from Belhydromet specialists, this phenomenon works like a giant invisible frying pan lid. A dense and stationary high-pressure dome hangs over the region, physically preventing life-saving moist cyclones from the Atlantic from entering — they are forced to bypass Belarus along its northern peripheries, heading far north. And under this dome, tropical air, deprived of circulation, systematically heats up day by day.

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At the same time, the nature of the heat strongly depends on where this air originated. If a continental tropical air mass breaks through (e.g., from overheated steppes), we get dry heat. Humidity drops to a critical 15-20 percent during the day, but this maintains a large daily temperature range — at night, the temperature can drop to comfortable values.

The real climatic challenge begins when tropical air of maritime origin reaches us. It brings with it a phenomenon that climatologists call 'tropical nights.' During such periods, which, by the way, were regularly recorded in July and August of previous years, the thermometer column does not drop below +20°C even in the darkest hours of the day.

For human health, this is the most dangerous scenario: an organism in a state of constant heat stress simply does not have time to recover overnight.

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In cities, this natural 'oven' is amplified by anthropogenic factors. Asphalt, concrete, glass, and steel act as heat accumulators. Scientists call this the 'heat island' effect — a phenomenon where the temperature in densely built urban areas can be 5 degrees higher than in green suburbs.

Therefore, the historical +40.4°C in Pinsk recorded at the weather station feels like close to fifty degrees on the heated urban streets and asphalt, turning outdoor presence into a real threat to life.

Climatic Memory of Belarusian Land

What we observe on thermometers today is only the visible part of a process that began long ago and is recorded not only by weather stations. Temperature fluctuations leave their physical trace deep underground.

In geophysics, there is a concept of 'climatic memory' — the ability of the Earth's crust to retain information about past temperature changes on the surface. Thermal fluctuations gradually spread downwards, reflected in thermograms.

Studies of the temperature gradient in deep boreholes (from 200 to 650 meters) in various tectonic zones of Belarus — from the Orsha Depression to the Pripyat Trough — conducted back in the late 1990s by scientists from the Institute of Geological Sciences of the National Academy of Sciences, showed clear signs of warming.

Analysis of thermograms confirmed that the warming of the Earth's surface by 0.5–1°C occurred over the past 200–300 years. However, in recent decades, this process has sharply accelerated and taken on new forms.

This dynamic is clearly visible in the movement of isotherms — lines on a map that connect points of equal temperature. According to studies by domestic climatologists, during the period of modern warming, climatic zones have significantly changed their geography. In spring, isotherms shifted northwards by more than 500 kilometers, and in summer, the shift was 150–300 kilometers.

For example, the summer isotherm of 18.5°C, which previously passed through the north of the Gomel region, is now recorded in the northern part of the Vitebsk region.

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For a long time, it was believed that Belarus's climate was warming primarily due to milder winters — this was particularly noted until the mid-1990s.

But after 1995, the nature of warming in the country changed fundamentally. The rates of increase in maximum winter temperatures significantly slowed down, and the vector of extremes shifted to mid-summer and early autumn.

Spring began to arrive faster, and the transition from summer to winter temperatures became more prolonged, increasing the length of the growing season. Hot days ceased to be an exception and became a systemic phenomenon for the entire country.

Steppe Climate

School geography textbooks, by which generations of Belarusians learned, are no longer relevant. Traditionally, the country's territory was divided into three agro-climatic regions: Northern, Central, and Southern. However, everything has changed now.

According to the latest research by domestic climatologists (in particular, the works of leading researcher Viktor Melnik of the Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences and researcher Tatiana Tabalchuk), the first, coldest agro-climatic region in northern Belarus has virtually disappeared.

Instead, in the south — predominantly in the territory of the Brest and Gomel regions — a completely new, fourth agro-climatic region has formed, which simply did not exist in meteorological reference books before. The sum of active temperatures (above +10°C) has significantly increased here.

The area of this new 'steppe' zone already exceeds 54 thousand sq. km (a quarter of the country's area), and if the current warming rates persist, it will soon occupy most of the country.

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These climatic shifts inevitably raise the question of water resources. And here there is a paradox: according to Belhydromet statistics, the annual precipitation total in Belarus has practically not changed — fluctuations are a negligible 3–5%. However, in this case, statistics are misleading, as the very nature of rainfall has fundamentally changed.

Instead of uniform, prolonged rains that gradually saturated the soil with moisture and were characteristic of our temperate climate, we have witnessed the extremization of precipitation.

A regime of prolonged rainless periods has established — when there is no precipitation for weeks, and sometimes even months.

According to research data from the Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences, although the average number of such dry periods per year has not significantly changed, their maximum duration in certain regions has begun to break records. To understand the scale: previously, before the onset of the modern climatic shift, a rainless period of 20-25 days was already considered a serious challenge for agriculture.

Now, however, the figures have become utterly catastrophic. For example, in 2002 in Sharkovshchina and in 2019 in Volkovysk, it did not rain for exactly 69 days. This is more than two months of absolute drought in a row, which for the traditional Belarusian climate, where rains should occur every few weeks, is an indicator of deep stress for the ecosystem. The soil dries out severely and is covered with a dense crust that loses its ability to absorb moisture quickly.

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Such droughts usually end with short-term and very intense downpours. A month's worth of water can fall on the ground in just a few hours. This moisture does not have time to be absorbed by the overly dry, crusted soil.

Water simply drains into lowlands and reservoirs, causing localized urban flooding, but leaving agricultural fields essentially dry. This is a classic model of a continental steppe climate, where water is not a constant resource but a sporadic factor.

How We Will Live

The new temperature regime is a harsh stress test for the entire national economy, which for centuries was built under completely different meteorological conditions. When the air heats up to forty degrees, infrastructure materials begin to lose their operational properties.

As Belhydromet specialists note, at air temperatures above +30°C, deformation of road surfaces and railway tracks can occur, which heat up to much higher values in direct sunlight. There is a threat of failure of signaling and communication systems on railways.

Simultaneously, the energy system takes a hit: the massive use of air conditioners and fans sharply increases the load on electrical grids, which, combined with the heat, can lead to accidents at transformer substations.

No less dramatic processes are occurring in agriculture and forestry. The drop in groundwater levels, caused by droughts, critically weakens forest areas. It is climatic stress that has made our forests, especially in the south of the country, defenseless against the bark beetle invasion, which has destroyed vast areas of conifers in recent years.

As for agriculture, it faces a fundamental restructuring. Traditional moisture-loving crops for Belarus, such as flax or potatoes, are now in an area of maximum risk.

The future requires a transition to drought-resistant potato varieties, an expansion of corn cultivation, and in the southern regions — possibly even industrial cultivation of gourds and the creation of artificial irrigation systems, as in Mediterranean countries.

However, climatic transformation affects the country's territory unevenly. Researchers from the Belarusian State University calculated the so-called climate vulnerability index for different regions, analyzing data from 42 weather stations over the period of modern warming. The results demonstrate a clear pattern.

The most protected from climatic shocks were the uplands — Minsk, Novogrudok, Volkovysk. The terrain helps them maintain a more stable microclimate, so the vulnerability index there is assessed as low or medium.

However, the worst situation has developed in the lowlands. High indicators of climatic risk are recorded not only in the south (Polesie Lowland) but also in the north (Polotsk Lowland). Critical vulnerability values, associated with extreme precipitation regimes and temperature fluctuations, are predicted in the Ivatsevichi and Gantsevichi districts. Here, changes in nature may be felt most intensely.

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The record +40.4°C in Pinsk puts an end to discussions about whether global climate change threatens us.

The Belarusian climate will no longer return to the state of moderate, humid, and cool stability of the second half of the 20th century. The country's climate has begun to acquire distinct features of a forest-steppe zone.

Now the main question is how quickly our urban planning, energy system, transport standards, and agriculture will be able to adapt to a reality where tropical nights and multi-week droughts have become the norm.

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