A Second Noose Around the Neck of World Trade. Houthis Threaten to Close the Red Sea

The Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, once a haven of stability with low crime and even lower taxes, are now learning to live with the threats of constant attacks from the other side of the Gulf – from the still well-armed Islamic Republic of Iran.

It seems another calamity is being added to this one. The Yemeni Houthis appear to have abandoned the truce agreed in 2022 with Saudi Arabia. This week, two Saudi ships were destroyed by missiles. Another 10, as the Houthis claim, turned back and left Saudi ports after their announced ultimatum.

Thus, navigation in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the southern tip of the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean, is under threat. This is important in itself, and even more so due to Iran's prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is necessary for the export of oil and chemical products from Persian Gulf countries.

Until now, Saudi Arabia sought to stay out of the US war with Iran and until recently avoided the damage inflicted by Iranian drones and missiles on other Arab US allies in the Gulf – Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain. And thanks to a massive oil pipeline, it transported oil from its eastern provinces to the southwestern coast, to the oil terminal in Yanbu. From there, tankers carried it through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to buyers in Asia.

However, after the resumption of American strikes on Iran in early July, Iranian missiles reached Saudi Arabia as well. And now the Houthis are threatening to block shipping. By all accounts, this is being done under the direct guidance of Iranian military commanders: Reuters, citing sources in Iran and Yemen, reports that a delegation of ten or even twenty Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel with a cargo of military equipment flew from Iran to the Houthi-controlled part of Yemen on July 13.

"IRGC commanders went there to support Houthi operations and teach them how to use new missile systems," one of the Iranian interlocutors told the agency. What Iran's Foreign Ministry thinks about this could not be immediately ascertained, but in the past, Tehran denied providing the Houthis with missiles. The Houthis also reject military ties with Iran, claiming they handle their own armaments.

The Houthi group became a unified movement in 2014: then, in the wake of the revolutionary shifts of the "Arab Spring" in many countries of the region, detachments of this Shiite tribe, living in the northernmost part of Yemen, marched south and captured the country's capital, Sanaa. Several densely populated areas of Yemen were then seized, including the strategically important port of Hodeidah.

In 2015, Saudi Arabia decided to help Yemen's legitimate overthrown government, believing that having a group supported by their long-time adversary, Iran, on its southern borders was completely unnecessary. Riyadh believed that with the help of the latest Western aircraft and missiles, the rebels could be quickly compelled to capitulate and negotiate.

It didn't work. Despite horrific civilian casualties from mass shelling, the Houthis did not capitulate and after 10 years had firmly entrenched themselves in power. After the truce with the Saudis, the Houthis switched to fighting Israel – mainly by attacking Israel-linked maritime transport in the Red Sea. They also shelled US and UK ships, which had kept the Yemeni coast under control for a year and a half, trying to protect commercial shipping.

And just like the coast of the Strait of Hormuz on the Iranian side, the Red Sea coast in Yemen is full of caves, tunnels, and other secluded places where ammunition can be stored relatively safely, quickly retrieved for a new attack.

In May 2025, the USA concluded a truce with the Houthis, but now US President Donald Trump promises to "deal with them," and the threat of war reopening on this front is very real.

The relative calm near the Red Sea coast was disturbed as early as July 7, when the dry cargo ship Eternity C, which was sailing empty from Somalia after delivering humanitarian aid there, sank as a result of a Houthi missile attack. The vessel sailed under the Liberian flag and was owned by the Greek company Cosmoship. The reason for the attack, according to the Houthis, was that other ships of this company had called at Israeli ports.

The map of political fires in the Middle East has changed. The situation has stabilized in two countries that were torn apart by civil strife for many years – Iran and Syria. Nominally, a truce is holding in the Gaza Strip, although people continue to die there. On the west bank of the Jordan River, tensions are high due to the continued seizure of land by Israeli settlers. For now, a ceasefire is maintained between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But sparks have flown in the Persian Gulf and on the Arabian Peninsula. Donald Trump has plunged into a war with Iran, from which there seems to be no exit.

Every night, American aviation destroys bridges, roads, and power plants in Iran, but it still cannot force the IRGC to retreat from the Strait of Hormuz. Every night, Iran, trying to drive a wedge between the US and its allies in the Gulf, responds with strikes on Arab countries, on locations where American airbases are situated.

And every new day, as tankers and ships carrying chemical products and fertilizers cannot exit the Persian Gulf, international supply chains are tightening more and more. If the Red Sea also closes, pressure on the global economy will intensify.

Further nervousness was added by the US agreement with Saudi Arabia to create a nuclear energy program. Nothing yet suggests that the Saudis will try to use it to obtain nuclear weapons. But the very thought of it raises fears that other countries in the region – Turkey and Egypt – might start to accelerate their own nuclear programs.

Of course, the Middle East is well acquainted with surges of tension and violence, and for now, this is not the worst the region has seen in recent decades. But collectively, these various alarming signals suggest that without a lasting and comprehensive agreement between the US and Iran, it faces a long and difficult period of instability.

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