Expert: Opposition Leaders Abroad Have Sound Radicalism, but Changes Born Inside

How the emigration affects their political activity and prospects? Are there two opposition hubs — one within the country and one outside — are being created? May they start competing? Aliaksandr Klaskouski, the head of analytical department of BelaPAN answers these questions.

RFE/RL: After the presidential elections, many opposition leaders had to leave the country. In fact, today all leaders of the European Belarus escaped from the country. Considering the previous experience, is it possible to say that they remain active in the field of politics or does being abroad somehow negatively affect them?

Klaskouski: It is all personal and depends on circumstances and person’s character. For example, I noticed that Sannikau in his interview was very restrained about the further prospect of his political activity. It seems to me that this man suffered a lot and now he decided to focus on his family.

But some have just enviable political energy which unfortunately is not always supported with any well-mulled over programme, resource base or at least minimum respect. The recent scandal around Zianon Pazniak is a good example. Or we may recall the “government in exile” created by Colonel Baradach: it called on to unite and simultaneously labeled many people as KGB agents.

The point is that politicians abroad still want to be in politics while even in Belarus politics is more virtual than real.

So there is a gap between ambitions and possibilities. And this begets conflicts when some start elevating themselves at the expense of radical stance or crashing on those who remained in Belarus.

RFE/RL: Is there a possibility that the two hubs — inner and outer — may be established now? Will they compete and is there a chance they may agree to achieve some mutual goals?

Klaskouski: There is a danger of two centres of opposition. It is psychologically easier to voice most radical positions for leaders abroad. We may observe that the ideas of boycott, West’s economic war on Belarusian regime are popular among the emigration. And thus a more moderate part of opposition are called “allies” [of the regime — NN], “agents”, etc. The danger is significant and I am not optimistic enough to say they will settle the matter tomorrow.

In any case, it should be understood that the change will arrive in Belarus from inside. This will depend on economy, on opposition’s work with people. So, stoning those who work inside Belarus — though may be not always efficient — is incorrect and unwise.

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