"Maduro is completely alone." Will Venezuela's perennial allies come to its aid?
When Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro wonders where his true friends are, he can be understood. Support from his two main allies – China and Russia – once seemed unbreakable, but now looks increasingly blurred, writes the BBC.
For many years, both countries have provided political, financial, and military support to Venezuela's socialist government. These relations began under former President Hugo Chávez, Maduro's mentor and predecessor.
But experts believe that this support is now mostly symbolic, manifesting in statements rather than concrete military or financial aid.
This shift occurred after the US deployed air and naval forces in the Caribbean, including a nuclear submarine, reconnaissance aircraft, and nearly 15,000 troops, and US President Donald Trump unilaterally declared Venezuela's airspace "completely closed." Trump insists this is an anti-drug trafficking operation, but many experts, like Maduro himself, believe Washington's true goal is regime change.
What has changed during this difficult time for the Venezuelan president?
Strong Allies
When Chávez came to power in 1999, he began building strategic alliances with China and Russia as part of his efforts to create a multipolar world and counteract US influence.
These ties proved crucial in 2019 when, following elections marked by accusations of fraud, Maduro's legitimacy was threatened. Both Beijing and Moscow refused to recognize opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who declared himself interim president, and continued to provide economic and military support to the regime.
Now, as Maduro faces a new and even more serious crisis, neither China nor Russia has demonstrated any concrete support. However, according to the Washington Post, in late October the Venezuelan leader did appeal to both countries for military assistance.
Internal US government documents obtained by journalists indicate that Venezuela asked Russia for help repairing fighter jets, upgrading radar systems, and acquiring missiles. But so far, Moscow has provided no material assistance, limiting itself to statements.
According to Russia's state news agency TASS, in early November, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia maintains "constant working contacts" with Venezuela but declined further comment. Around the same time, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a press briefing that "any escalation only leads to even greater problems."
Later, TASS quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who stated that Russia stands "shoulder to shoulder" with Venezuela. "We support Venezuela, as it supports us, in many areas," he said, calling on the Trump administration not to escalate the crisis.
These statements contrast with Moscow's actions in 2018: after the US did not recognize the election results announced by the Maduro government-controlled National Electoral Council, Russia, to demonstrate strength, sent more than 100 pilots and military personnel to Venezuela, as well as two Tu-160 bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
And what about China?
The Washington Post also reported that Maduro sent a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping requesting "expanded military cooperation" to counter the "escalation between the US and Venezuela." He asked Beijing to accelerate the production and delivery of Chinese radar systems to Venezuela.
Chinese financing once played a central role in Venezuela's development: according to data from the China-Latin America Finance Database, from 2005 to 2022, the country was the largest recipient of Chinese loans in Latin America.
The American Council on Foreign Relations estimates that during this period, Caracas received up to $60 billion — over 40% of the total loans issued by China to the region. China also became the main market for Venezuelan oil.
But, like Moscow, Beijing has shown no signs of being ready to defend Venezuela militarily, instead condemning "external interference" and calling for restraint, emphasizing that Latin America should remain a "zone of peace."
Shift in Priorities
Professor Fernando Reyes Matta, director of the Center for Chinese Studies at Andrés Bello University in Chile, argues that Venezuela has dropped on Beijing and Moscow's list of priorities, especially after Trump's return to the White House.
"Today, neither Russia nor China has reason to go all-in to defend Venezuela, given their other problems, such as Russia's war in Ukraine and China's attempts to coexist on the international stage with President Trump," he says.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has invested enormous resources into this conflict, causing significant strain in both its financial and military sectors. Additionally, the country is subject to Western sanctions.
As a result, allies who previously enjoyed the Kremlin's support have fewer resources, says Professor Vladimir Rouvinski, director of the Laboratory of Politics and International Relations at Icesi University in Colombia.
Syria and Iran, long-standing Moscow allies in the Middle East, have faced a similar problem.
"Russia will not risk being subjected to even more sanctions than it already is, and China will not risk falling under new tariffs for defending Maduro," he adds.
Experts also say that for China, defending Maduro carries additional risks that could jeopardize Beijing's recent diplomatic achievements with Washington, without offering any benefit other than ideological alignment.
Relations between the US and China remain tense, as Trump has imposed tariffs on goods from several countries. However, a meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea in late October, which both sides characterized as positive, opened the way for new agreements.
Later, the US agreed to reduce tariffs on some Chinese products from 20% to 10%, although most other tariffs remain in effect.
According to experts, Venezuela's economic collapse and the breakdown of its oil industry have further weakened support from China. In recent years, Beijing has reduced the volume of new loans and is currently mainly occupied with collecting payments for past ones.
"I think China is ready to negotiate with any government that eventually replaces Maduro, and assumes that too strong support for Maduro now could lead to negative consequences if the regime collapses," said Professor Rouvinski.
"Maduro is Left Alone"
Both experts draw attention to another factor — the internal situation in Venezuela.
"I don't think either of these two countries is ready to support a regime that has such insignificant internal support. Moreover, both Russia and China know that the last presidential elections showed clear signs of falsification," said Professor Reyes Matta.
The July 2024 elections were accompanied by serious accusations of fraud. The National Electoral Council, dominated by government allies, declared Maduro the winner, but, unlike previous elections, did not publish detailed results.
The opposition, led by this year's Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, who has to go into hiding, published electoral protocols indicating that opposition candidate Edmundo González actually won.
"This time, Maduro is completely alone," says Professor Rouvinski.
He believes Maduro's time is running out:
"Russia and China may continue to criticize US interference, but they are not ready to go further. The support he enjoyed in the past no longer exists in reality, except for some rhetorical statements."
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