The nature of the US-Iran agreement is still unclear, but Belarusians don't care about the details. The important thing is that it exists
Will the Strait of Hormuz be opened? Whatever the deal, only this point matters to us, writes Mikola Buhai.
A tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Illustrative photo: Getty Images
Information about the deal to be signed on June 19 is still very general. Trump says one thing, Iran says another.
In Israel, dissatisfaction and bitterness prevail: the US is withdrawing from the war without having defeated the enemy.
For Belarusians, something else is important: whether the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. Whatever the agreement, only this point matters to us. With the opening of the strait, oil prices will go down, and with them, the replenishment of Russia's budget.
Moscow was on the verge of running out of money: the budget deficit for the first 4 months of 2026 exceeded the forecast for the entire year by one and a half times. The US attack on Iran temporarily saved Putin, as oil and gas prices rose sharply.
With their fall, the chances of stopping the war in Ukraine will increase. And it will be harder for the Kremlin to finance its puppets in Minsk.
If the signing of the deal does not fall through, then June 19 will mark an interim outcome of the war itself.
On the one hand, Israel and the US killed Iran's leadership. And this is the greatest guarantee of the future alignment: the sword of Damocles will hang over the next leaders as well. On the other hand, Washington failed to achieve the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by military means, and had to go to negotiations.
Europe withstood the jump in energy prices. Ukraine stood firm. Arabs will invest in alternative routes for hydrocarbon exports bypassing Hormuz. Alternative energy sources received a new dose of investment. Iran saw that Moscow could not help it in any way. The military-industrial complex of all countries will be looking for new and budget-friendly solutions for shooting down ballistic missiles and Shaheds.
But the main thing for our region: war. The return of low oil prices will increase the chances of its cessation.
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Практычнае: флот з дна марскога не дазваляе першай арміі свету кантраляваць маленькі лапік на глобусе.
Прагноз : Армузская пратока будзе заблакаваная да пераабрання Трампа. Першым крокам заблакавалі венесуэльскую нафту, наступным крокам зрабілі непраходнай Армузскую пратоку.
Магчымыя новыя разбурэнні і блакады нафтаносных рэгіёнаў. Напрыклад, на Блізкім Усходзе, у Мексіканскай затоцы і ў Паўночным моры, між Грынляндыяй і Нарвегіяй.
Дэстабілізацыя ў гэтых рэгіёнах і ў Канадзе стала найпершым клопатам 80-ці гадовага нарцыса, неаднойчы ім артыкулявалася.