What will end first: the war or Putin? Forecasts by Western analysts

Vladimir Putin. Photo: AP

Ukraine Intensifies Pressure

The Times describes the current campaign as a bloody quagmire for the Russian army.

According to data from independent Russian journalists and Western intelligence, Russian army losses could range from 225,000 to 500,000 people. At the same time, the Kremlin itself does not disclose information about casualties.

«Putin, a former KGB officer raised on stories of the greatness of the Soviet army, apparently wants to turn a blind eye to such realities,» the publication notes.

Journalists add that Putin demonstrates confidence in victory and rejects ideas of compromise. He refused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's offer to hold a personal meeting to discuss ending the war.

But the war is increasingly coming to Russian territory — Ukrainian drones are attacking targets deep within the country, and Ukraine is expanding its own capabilities for long-range strikes.

This, according to The Times, is becoming one of the new challenges for Moscow.

Among the latest examples are strikes on facilities near St. Petersburg during an economic forum that the Kremlin traditionally uses as a demonstration of stability. Ukrainian drones flew over the city, and the Russian National Guard attempted to shoot them down with small arms.

According to the publication, the appearance of Ukraine's own long-range missiles is causing particular concern in Moscow.

The Times mentions the FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile with a warhead weighing about a ton. Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that such missiles struck a factory in Cheboksary, where important components for Russian drones and missiles were produced.

Analyst Fabian Hinz told The Times that some experts even suggest Kyiv may have already surpassed Russia in the number of monthly long-range drone launches.

CNN also focuses on Ukraine's technological successes. The Institute for the Study of War stated that Ukrainian forces "are ahead in innovation," primarily in the use of drones.

Павялічыць

Ukrainian military personnel near Chasiv Yar. Western experts call losses at the front one of the main challenges for the Kremlin. Photo: AFP via Getty Image

However, it is too early to speak of a turning point in the war. Ruben Stewart, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, noted in a comment to The Times that Russian losses are indeed very high, but he "would not call it a turning point yet."

Money exists. But "rubles don't fight"

CNN draws attention to another Kremlin problem – human resources. Russia continues to offer huge payments for contract service: bonuses up to 80 thousand dollars and debt write-offs up to 140 thousand. Traditionally, according to Russian economy expert Janis Kluge, recruitment into the army in the first quarter of this year decreased by 20% compared to 2025.

Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Research Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, frames the problem thus: "Rubles don't fight."

He reminds that this is the first war in modern Russian history where the state is effectively buying the participation of citizens in hostilities, rather than simply forcing them to. In his opinion, such a model creates increasing economic and personnel difficulties.

Gould-Davies believes: the Kremlin may soon face a choice — either mobilize the economy and society even more strongly, or adjust its military goals.

Павялічыць

A poster in Dolgoprudny, near Moscow, promises from 6 million rubles for contract service – about 80 thousand dollars. Photo: Getty Image

Does Putin understand the real situation?

One of the most interesting questions raised by The Times is to what extent Putin himself understands the real situation at the front and within the country.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former Russian oligarch and one of Putin's most well-known critics, believes that the Russian president receives information but trusts only a narrow circle of close associates. Because of this, Khodorkovsky says, "his perception of reality is somewhat different."

An interlocutor of The Times in Moscow, close to the Kremlin, describes Putin differently:

«He is very patient. He believes in victory.»

The Guardian columnist Simon Tisdall elaborates on this idea further. He writes that many — from Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Western military analysts — believe that Putin finds himself in a difficult position.

But the main question is different: if Putin is indeed losing, does he understand it himself?

The author thinks probably not. According to him, Putin still sees Russia as a superpower and does not notice how the war is increasingly isolating the country and strengthening its dependence on China.

The columnist also reminds that the Russian president does not use the internet and largely relies on his closest circle. And if advisors tell him only what he wants to hear, then he has even fewer reasons to change course.

That is why, the author believes, even growing losses and problems are unlikely to force Putin to stop.

Павялічыць

Vladimir Putin during celebrations for Russia Day in the Kremlin. Photo: Vyacheslav Prokofyev / Sputnik / Kremlin/Pool/EPA

Why this is not yet the Kremlin's collapse

Despite all the difficulties, hopes that economic pressure will quickly force Putin to end the war still appear doubtful, experts believe.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies told CNN that the Kremlin still has resources to compensate for problems with military recruitment, and the defense industry, although operating almost at its limits, continues to function.

At the same time, the economic cost of the war is growing.

«This year, we particularly see how economic costs are finally forcing the Kremlin to make difficult compromises,» noted Maria Snegovaya, a researcher at the Center.

However, according to her, the Russian authorities are currently responding to problems not by changing course, but by strengthening control.

A similar conclusion is also presented in The Times: the Russian economy has adapted to some sanctions, elites remain loyal to the Kremlin, and society is gradually getting used to a lower standard of living.

So what will end first?

The Guardian columnist Simon Tisdall reminds: Putin has historically more often responded to challenges with escalation, rather than retreat.

Therefore, finding himself in a deadlock, he may not seek a way out of the war, but on the contrary — try to expand it.

The publication quotes MI6 head Blaze Metreveli, who stated: "The front line is everywhere." According to her, Russia is increasingly using sabotage, cyberattacks, and other tools of pressure outside Ukraine. This, in her opinion, is a peculiarity of Russia's approach to international relations.

A similar warning is also sounded in The Times. John Foreman, former British military attaché in Moscow, notes that Putin still has tools for further escalation:

«Last week he quoted Stalin. This is a man who is not going to change and is convinced that Russia still has enough resources to achieve his goals.»

Therefore, the main question remains open: will the ever-increasing cost of the war force the Kremlin to seek a way out of the war, or will it, on the contrary, push for new escalation?

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