Ukraine creates a cheap alternative to Patriot missiles. But production is possible only if France, Italy, and Norway join in

Constant Russian missile and drone attacks have forced Ukraine to seek radical solutions for defending its skies. As Western supplies of Patriot and SAMP-T systems are limited, and American production is now largely redirected to the needs of the Middle East, Kyiv has bet on its own development.

As reported by the Financial Times, Ukrainian arms manufacturer Fire Point announced last week that it conducted the first flight test of its new FP-7.x anti-aircraft missile. Co-founder of the company, Denis Shtilerman, called these tests "quite successful" in an interview with the publication.

The manufacturer claims that the cost of one FP-7.x missile will be around $700,000. For comparison, according to the US Army's budget estimates for 2026, one Patriot PAC-3 missile costs about $3.8 million. Thus, the Ukrainian development could be more than five times cheaper.

According to Shtilerman, by August, the enterprise will be able to produce three missiles per day, which will be stored until the infrared seeker head, which Fire Point hopes to obtain from the German company Diehl Defence, is installed. Fully ready missiles are expected by 2027.

As FT notes, the FP-7.x missile is a key element of a new European-Ukrainian air defense system called "Freyja". The company does not disclose its contractors, but Ukrainian and European officials report that Fire Point has been in talks with Germany's Hensoldt and France's Thales regarding radars, with Italy's Leonardo regarding target tracking systems, and with Norway's Kongsberg regarding command and control technologies.

Павялічыць

According to the developers, the project's implementation now largely depends on how quickly Western partners act.

Technically, the FP-7.x should approach the capabilities of Patriot. According to Fire Point, the missile is capable of operating at altitudes up to 25 kilometers — roughly at the level of the American system. It should also have sufficient speed to intercept ballistic missiles.

However, there are important differences between the two systems. Patriot uses high-precision guidance through powerful ground-based radars. The Ukrainian missile also uses radar guidance, but in the final stage of flight, it switches to infrared homing based on the target's thermal signature. Thermal guidance is generally considered less effective than radar guidance due to the possibility of using thermal decoys and electronic countermeasures.

In an interview with FT, Tom Karako, a missile defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, noted that the FP-7.x could complement Ukraine's air defense arsenal, which includes older Soviet systems, American Hawk missiles, and modern German IRIS-T interceptors. However, the "Freyja" system is unlikely to become a full-fledged replacement for more advanced systems like Patriot.

In his opinion, to defend against the full spectrum of threats, various types of weapons must be used. Therefore, it is more appropriate to view the new Ukrainian development as an addition to Patriot, rather than its direct successor.

Despite the skepticism, Fire Point has surprised observers multiple times. Just last year, many doubted the company's plans to create cheap cruise missiles. However, it later demonstrated success with the long-range FP-1 drone, which was used for strikes on Russian oil refineries and even a warship near St. Petersburg. The medium-range FP-2 system is also actively used, striking Russian logistics in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

Experts note that these weapons are not particularly stealthy but effectively exploit the shortcomings of the Russian radar network. That is why many are now paying closer attention to the new missile defense project.

According to defense consultant Marc Lange, the main difficulty in creating anti-ballistic missiles is that they are very difficult to test. Bringing such systems to the required level requires years of engineering work and a large number of real interceptions.

However, Ukraine finds itself in a unique situation: constant Russian ballistic attacks simultaneously create a threat and provide an opportunity to quickly accumulate practical experience, which in other countries usually only appears after decades of operating similar systems.

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