Fewer and fewer school graduates choose Belarusian language for the Centralized Testing. If 20 years ago almost half took it, now it's only one in six

Until 2023, two different systems existed in Belarus: all eleventh-graders took graduation exams in schools (including writing a retelling in a language), and for those entering further education, passing the Centralized Testing (CT) in either Belarusian or Russian language (by choice) was mandatory. Only in 2023 were these tests combined into a single Centralized Examination (CE).

Starting from 2023, the centralized examination became a mandatory graduation assessment for all eleventh-graders, where everyone must choose one of the two state languages. These are two completely different cohorts: self-selected applicants versus a complete cross-section of graduates.

And within the era of CT, there's another turning point — 2017, when it became possible to take four subjects instead of three, and applicants began taking both languages as a backup. Therefore, all figures can only be placed in a single sequence with these reservations.

Павялічыць

Real decline: 2008–2016

In the late 2000s, almost half of applicants chose the Belarusian language for CT. In CT-2008, about 69 thousand took Belarusian compared to 107 thousand for Russian (39.2%), in 2009 — 65 thousand against 110 thousand (37.1%), in 2010 — 66 thousand against 105 thousand (38.7%).

Then the decline began. In 2016, the indicator reached its then-minimum — 22 thousand against 78 thousand (22.3%). This was a real demographic-cultural shift: the Belarusian language in CT lost more than a third of its audience in just five years.

Павялічыць

Jump of 2017 and plateau

In 2017, the share of Belarusian suddenly jumped from 22% to 27% and then held at around a quarter of applicants for six years. The temptation to read this as a revival of interest in the Belarusian language is great — but the reason is more pragmatic.

In early 2017, changes to the Admission Rules allowed applicants to take a fourth subject instead of three (optional, admission remained based on three), and the validity period of certificates was extended to two years. A "free slot" appeared, and many added Belarusian language as an easy additional certificate that didn't require much effort.

It is significant that the total number of applicants that year even fell — about 92 thousand compared to 100 thousand a year earlier. That is, Belarusian grew not due to an influx of new people, but due to redistribution: the same applicants began to take more subjects. In subsequent years, this pragmatic strategy became the norm and maintained a defined plateau.

Павялічыць

If you look not at the share, but at absolute figures, it is clear that Belarusian also fell in absolute terms all this time — from 28 thousand in 2017 to 18 thousand in 2022. The "plateau" held only in percentages, because the mass of those who took the Russian language in these years collapsed even faster — from 78 thousand to 50. And the overall decline was due to the demographic pit.

Павялічыць

Collapse of 2023

After 2023, the share of Belarusian again went down, breaking through its previous bottom. But this drop is also not about language choice, but about the cohort itself changing. With the introduction of CE, every graduate is obliged to take a language, not just motivated applicants. In the first year of CE, 21.6% chose Belarusian, in 2024 — 20.7%, in 2025 — 18.9%, and in 2026 — 17.7%: 10,417 people against 48,456.

Comparing this share directly with CT data is not possible — as we wrote above, these are different populations of people. Nevertheless, for the new CE era, the picture is uniform and the trend is unambiguous: for four consecutive years, the share of Belarusian has been decreasing.

If you filter the figures from the influence of reforms — the jump of 2017 from the fourth subject and the fundamental shift of 2023 — a simple fact remains. Two decades ago, Belarusian and Russian were chosen in roughly comparable proportions for the main exam. Today — one to five. Sharp shifts in the graphs are explained by changes in rules, but the overall direction is singular — downwards.

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