Historical turning point: the number of elderly people in the world has for the first time exceeded the number of young children

For most of human history, the age structure of the population resembled a pyramid: many children and young people at the bottom, and significantly fewer elderly people at the top. But this structure is rapidly changing. People are living longer, families are becoming smaller, and in dozens of countries, each successive generation is smaller than the previous one.

And the world has already crossed a symbolic threshold that clearly shows the scale of these changes. For the first time in history, there are more people aged 65 and over on Earth than children under five.

This is highlighted by Axios, analyzing a new report by the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to the forecast, this gap will only widen. By 2060, the Earth's population will grow from 8.13 billion to 10.23 billion people. Meanwhile, the number of people aged 65 and over will increase from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion, and their share of the planet's population will almost double — from 10.5% to 19.6%.

Thus, it is the older generation that will provide a significant part of future population growth. According to Axios' calculations based on Census Bureau projections, the increase in the number of people aged 65 and over will account for about 55% of the total net population growth of the planet by 2060.

Why the world is aging so fast

It's not just that people have started living longer. The second key factor is the sharp drop in birth rates.

In 2013, 45% of the planet's population lived in countries where the birth rate was below the simple replacement level (approximately 2.1 children per woman). In 2023, more than 71% of people lived in such countries.

Thus, the majority of the world's population now lives in countries with low birth rates, and this turning point, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, occurred much earlier than demographers predicted just a decade ago.

Moreover, low birth rates are no longer a feature solely of Europe and other wealthy regions. They have fallen below the simple replacement level in the two most populous countries in the world — China and India. Since 2013, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam, among others, have also crossed this threshold.

In some countries, what the report's authors call a "fertility trap" is emerging: larger older generations are followed by smaller younger ones. This accelerates aging, and over time can lead to population decline.

For the economy, this means fewer potential workers and people capable of caring for the elderly, alongside a simultaneous increase in the number of those who need pensions, medical care, and long-term care.

It's not just Europe that will age

Europe currently remains the oldest region in the world, but the largest numerical growth of the elderly population is expected in Asia.

The number of Asian residents aged 65+ could grow from 487 million in 2025 to 1.24 billion in 2060. This is approximately two-thirds of the total global increase in this age group.

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Africa will remain the youngest continent, but even there, the number of elderly people could more than quadruple — from 60 million to 249 million. By 2060, this will even be more than in Europe, where 214 million people aged 65+ are projected.

The example of the USA is also telling. Currently, 18.9% of Americans are people older than 65. By 2060, their share will grow to 23.4%. But at the same time, the USA will drop in the global aging ranking from approximately 48th to 110th place — that's how much faster other countries will age.

But there's another side

The increase in the number of elderly people does not in itself mean a catastrophe. To a large extent, this is the result of one of the main achievements of the last century: fewer people die in childhood and middle age, and more live to old age.

Furthermore, older people can stay in the labor market longer, help fill staff shortages, care for loved ones, and engage in volunteering.

One of the report's authors, Andrew Scott, believes that aging may force societies to rethink their very attitude towards old age and perceive it not only as an expense but also as an economic resource. This will require investments in disease prevention, opportunities for longer working careers, and jobs adapted for older people.

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