Belarus is Being Brought Out of Isolation for a Reason — Zianon Pazniak on Trump's Policy

"2025 — is Treading Water"

"Putin does not want peace and will not agree to it under any circumstances," notes Zianon Pazniak, commenting on the results of the trip by US President Donald Trump's envoys to Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

The doyen of Belarusian politics notes: the situation unfolding in Ukraine, where infrastructure is being destroyed in the harsh winter, benefits the Russians. And on the issue of ending shelling and achieving peace, "the Russians will stick to their guns for a long time," unless the West takes radical measures.

"Opportunities exist — these are secondary sanctions, lowering oil and gas prices. But so far Trump is not pursuing this — he thinks he can find some key. But nothing will come of this — I know this for sure, because Americans and Europeans absolutely do not understand Russia, do not understand this mentality, do not understand Putin — they think that one can negotiate with them. That will never happen," Zianon Pazniak is convinced.

According to the politician, the second option that could stop Putin is strong assistance to Ukraine, i.e., an armed conflict:

"We'll see what comes of them. So far, there is nothing. The entire year 2025 — is just treading water."

"America Does Not Want to Be a Nanny"

Pazniak adds that, even if certain agreements are reached between the parties, for example, a suspension of shelling of critical infrastructure, it is in the Russian style to break these agreements at any moment. Why then are the US pushing Ukrainians towards negotiations with Moscow, which clearly does not want peace?

"They don't see other options. They have to try something, pretend something is being done, but they don't know what to do. And they are not ready for drastic options. Moreover, there's the problem with Iran, with Gaza — many others arise. For modern American politics, Ukraine is somewhere in third place," Zianon Pazniak reflects.

He recalls changes in US foreign policy — an orientation towards the Monroe Doctrine. According to the politician, President Trump's speech in Davos demonstrates consistency in his inclination towards this policy. Trump stated that Europe is destroying itself, its civilization, has abandoned Christianity, does not meet NATO requirements, and has disarmed. And under these conditions, America simply does not want to be a nanny for the whole world.

"This is the expression of the Monroe Doctrine," notes the politician.

At the same time, Zianon Pazniak believes that not all is lost in the relations between the USA and the EU.

"They will still try to establish relations with NATO, with Europe. However, if this does not happen, I see no future for European civilization. It is simply dying," Zianon Pazniak believes.

At the same time, the interviewee says, Americans cannot resolve the issue of the war in Ukraine and "want to push it onto Europe," mentioning the great ocean that separates the two hemispheres of the Earth:

"As if to say, 'You live next to Ukraine, these are your problems — you should think about it. Why should we do everything for you?' And this is true. NATO is financed by the USA, and Trump made them [Europeans] somehow pay attention to this. In two years, the war has changed fundamentally, but European armies have remained at the level of World War II. They do nothing! Americans do, but Europe does nothing. Well, they gather, express concern, make some decisions, but there is nothing. And Trump talks about this in Davos."

"Americans Understand They Will Lose by Giving Belarus to Russia"

As for Belarus and its relations with the USA, Zianon Pazniak believes that inviting Aliaksandr Lukashenka to the Peace Council is a step "good for both the people and the state." Here's how he justifies his opinion:

"In 2024, Belarus was not mentioned anywhere — it was absent! Peace talks were starting, and they could have gone any which way. And in a situation where Belarus no longer exists, is no longer a political subject, and no one talks about it, it could even be traded, like Crimea. This was a very dangerous phenomenon, you understand? Therefore, our movement's position was to reject sanctions and 'exchange' them for political prisoners. Europe does not want to do this, Biden could not do this — only Trump. And so he began a policy that effectively brought Belarus out of isolation."

At the same time, the politician believes that this step, while good for Lukashenka, still does not legitimize him.

According to Pazniak, Americans have begun a "pragmatic, rational policy and are achieving results." The politician considers the Peace Council a "very good idea" and emphasizes that it is recognized by a UN Security Council resolution. But why does Trump need Aliaksandr Lukashenka in this composition?

"Americans perfectly understand that Belarus is a strategic territory. They understand that by giving Belarus to Russia, they will lose. They must have their hand there, their influence, information. And they approach it very carefully — through the lifting of sanctions, the release of political prisoners. And what happens next? At the same time, they recognize potash salts as a strategically important product for America. And where are potash salts? In Belarus. This means it's a target," the interviewee reflects.

Mr. Zianon believes that with such actions, the US plans to return Belarusian trade to the Western market, which in the long term will distance the country from Russian influence. The interviewee adds: his movement is also working towards such a result.

"We set the task [in contacts with partners regarding Belarus] of lifting sanctions — that's one point; the release of political prisoners — a second; stopping repressions — a third, very important point. And the fourth is investments. They will not come if repressions are not stopped: a diplomatic problem will arise. For us, this is very important: we are lifting our people up. Then there will need to be an unblocking of transport — trains should run to Europe, there should be trade. The people must interact with Europe! And effectively, it turns out that society will gradually move away from Russia," concluded Zianon Pazniak.

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