Moshes: EU has accepted that Lukashenka will forever remain in Russia's sphere of influence

Alexander Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin. September 26, 2025. Photo: Ramil Sitdikov Pool Photo via AP

Reflecting in an interview with "Radio Svaboda" on the reasons for Alexander Lukashenka's refusal to personally attend the first meeting of the leaders of the Peace Council in the US, Arkady Moshes noted that Moscow did not influence this decision. In his opinion, it would have been difficult for the Belarusian leader to engage in conversations with other world leaders who might have been present there and represented different viewpoints, as well as "a completely different understanding of what the world represents today."

"I think Lukashenka did the right thing from his point of view by not going, by sending the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Presence is seemingly ensured."

In general, according to the expert, it is not possible to say that Lukashenka's contacts with representatives of the Trump administration could lead to any weakening of ties between Minsk and Moscow.

"Putin has no problem observing how Lukashenka conducts his foreign policy in the Western direction. All key positions were captured by Russia a very long time ago, not after 2020, but at least after 2010. And, so to speak, if the West comes to Minsk with an offer of some money, it means that it will simply help Putin save his own, Russian, money," the expert believes, reminding that during the period 2015-2020, when the West pursued a policy towards Lukashenka that he calls "the policy of sunshine," Moscow "didn't twitch anywhere, behaved as usual":

"It gave some money, and signed some documents. Because Lukashenka is an instrument for Moscow, an instrument of indirect control in Belarus, which no one else can provide at this moment."

"There is no process of rapprochement"

Moreover, according to the expert, it cannot be asserted that Lukashenka's contacts with the Trump administration and the release of some political prisoners, which accompanies this process, could lead to any weakening of ties between Minsk and Moscow. As Moshes states, Lukashenka does not change his rhetoric or behavior:

"There is no process of rapprochement. Two facts of release [...] of almost two hundred political prisoners change nothing. This should have been happening every week. These people should have been released and, if not apologized to, then certainly not expelled from Belarus.

If he wanted to demonstrate that he genuinely wants to turn the page, he has many opportunities to do so. In terms of [...] releasing political prisoners. He is not doing it. [...]

If some authorized representative visits you once every few months, and you talk about something, it does not change the structure of relations or the essence of these relations. The essence of relations between the West and Lukashenka at the current moment is conflict. And this paradigm will persist for the foreseeable future."

"The idea of detaching Lukashenka from Russia is unfeasible"

Moshes also does not believe in the possibility of sanctions being lifted by the EU.

"These are all debates within the Belarusian opposition, or at least the expert community that monitors Belarus. Such debates, at least in Europe, certainly do not exist," the expert notes.

As he explains, the first reason sanctions will remain is that they work, and the second is that "the European Union has finally realized that the idea of detaching Lukashenka from Russia is unfeasible. Just like the idea of detaching Russia from China."

"While the idea of detaching Russia from China is still being discussed in some way, the idea of meeting Lukashenka halfway, lifting sanctions from him just because he might say something that would irritate Putin — that's not serious. Today's policy of the European Union is not built that way," the expert argues.

Moshes emphasizes that he doesn't know how long Belarus will remain dependent on Russia. He specifically refers to Lukashenka's dependence. After him, the situation will change: "I don't know about 'forever' and when it will end, but that Lukashenka personally will be in Russia's sphere of influence - yes. No one disputes that he personally cannot escape. And since the regime is associated with him and he personifies it, then, accordingly, we have all the other things.

Once he is gone and, I don't know, whoever else is there, then at least some discussions will begin. And the discussion will become different. But today there is absolutely no discussion."

The expert stresses: to start a discussion, Lukashenka and his propaganda machine "need to do things, not talk about perks, not about what they are waiting for or are ready to talk about something else."

According to Moshes, while Lukashenka can practically do nothing in foreign policy, being completely dependent on Moscow, he theoretically could do a lot domestically, but doesn't.

"The repressive machine, this flywheel, has been set in motion, and, in general, we see no slowdown. We have statistics available from human rights defenders. We see that while so many people have been released, more have been imprisoned.

And as long as this continues, I think it's useless to even have any conversation about the theoretical possibility of changing the nature of relations between the West, especially Europe, and Lukashenka."

The expert notes: "The European Union, at this moment, I am convinced, will not engage in serious negotiations or compromises with the Belarusian regime in the same way it did during the warming periods of 2008 and 2010, and even less so during the warming of 2015-2019. The motivation is unclear, the gains are unclear, but the losses are quite clear."

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