Can Iranian missiles threaten Paris, Berlin, and London?

Photo: Atta Kenare / AFP via Getty Images

The targets were not hit, but, as representatives of the Israeli army emphasized, Iran used long-range missiles for the first time since the start of the war.

Tehran has not yet officially confirmed the missile launch, and Iranian media reports mainly referred to foreign sources.

Experts are now studying the consequences of the failed attack, including what other potential targets might be. For example, could European capitals — Berlin, Paris, and London — become targets for strikes in the future?

A British government minister stated that there was no assessment confirming the IDF's claims that Iran possesses long-range missiles capable of reaching London.

"Iran's missile program has long been a focus of the international community," says Gancheh Habibiazad of the BBC Persian Service.

"While Tehran insists that missile development is purely defensive and implemented within the framework of a state deterrence strategy, critics argue that the expansion of long-range missile capabilities could change the dynamics of regional security," notes Gancheh Habibiazad.

Just over a month has passed since the start of negotiations on Tehran's nuclear program and related Western concerns. However, despite the prospect of continued negotiations, the US and Israel launched strikes on targets in Iran.

The Chagos Islands, where the Diego Garcia base is located, are approximately 3800 km from Iran.

The Wall Street Journal and CNN, citing unnamed American officials, reported the launch of ballistic missiles at the base. According to their information, none of the missiles reached their targets.

It is reported that one of the missiles failed in flight, and the second was intercepted from an American warship. According to BBC data, these reports are consistent with reality.

Shortly after the incident, the Israeli IDF stated that many cities in Europe, Asia, and Africa are now under threat and that last year Tehran's intention to develop missiles with such capabilities became known.

The Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, published a warning video on social media after the missile launch towards the Chagos Islands.

"Iran launched a two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 4000 km. These missiles were not intended to strike Israel. Their range allows them to reach European capitals. Berlin, Paris, and Rome are in the zone of direct threat," he said.

Other military experts, including former head of the UK Joint Forces Command General Richard Barrons, told the BBC that all this forced a reassessment of the perceived range of Iranian missiles.

"Previously, we believed that the range of Iranian missiles was 2000 km, but Diego Garcia is 3800 km away," Barrons noted.

Павялічыць

Iran has repeatedly emphasized that it limits the range of its missiles to two thousand kilometers. This meant that Israel was within reach of Iranian missiles, but not Europe.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli strike, claimed in 2021 that such a limitation was a political choice by the Iranian authorities, not a result of technical limitations in missile production, and that this choice was resisted by the military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Thus, Tehran wanted to make it clear to Israel that the threat remained – but without frightening Europe.

Last September, an Iranian MP told Iranian state television that the IRGC had successfully conducted a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, but he did not provide any details about its range at the time.

Furthermore, American officials have long argued that Iran's space program could include the development of technologies allowing for the creation of intercontinental ballistic missiles. As reported by the Times of Israel, Iran likely intended to use these technologies if necessary.

Some analysts agree with this.

"Assuming the missiles reached Diego Garcia… then the Iranians are also developing intercontinental ballistic missiles, the range of which could reach 10,000 km, although we have not yet seen them in action," Karin von Hippel, former Director-General of the Royal United Services Institute, told the BBC.

If this is the case, then missiles launched from Iran could potentially reach targets in the United States.

However, some experts doubt that Iranian missiles could have reached the specified targets, even if they had not been intercepted.

"There is no specific data to confirm that the Iranians could have targeted Britain or that they could have launched a strike at all if they wanted to," UK Housing Minister Steve Reed told the BBC.

The question is whether Iran has already mastered the operational technologies necessary to carry out such strikes on targets located at such a great distance. This refers to the capabilities of missile control and targeting.

And here, obviously, there is also a psychological aspect.

Some believe that Iran never intended to hit targets and that Tehran was rather sending a clear warning about its determination — for intimidation.

"It's not that they think they're going to attack London or Paris tomorrow, but I think for them it's another way to strengthen the deterrence effect," Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence officer now at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told The Independent.

Israel's reaction to events in the Indian Ocean this week can also be interpreted as a call to rally.

"Of course, Israel will say that, as it is in its interest to broaden the war and draw in as many other countries as possible alongside America and Israel," General Sir Richard Shirreff, former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO, told the BBC.

"We must resist this. This is Trump's war, without a clear end result or strategy, turning into a quagmire. We were told the nuclear capability was destroyed six months ago. We cannot believe anything coming from Washington on this," Richard Shirreff noted.

Pavel Aksyonov, military observer for the BBC Russian Service, speaks about the new understanding of Iran's missile capabilities as follows:

"The launches of two ballistic missiles from Iran at the American military base on Diego Garcia island, approximately 4,000 kilometers away, are an important event for two reasons.

Firstly, it changes the perception of Iran's capabilities in missile construction.

Until now, it was believed that the range of Iranian ballistic missiles did not exceed 2000 kilometers. That is, within the medium-range class.

Now it has become clear that Iran proved capable of preserving and deploying such a complex product as an intermediate-range missile.

There is no information in open sources about whether Iran has the capability to assemble similar missiles from pre-war stockpiles, or even to produce components. This is important in assessing Iran's potential.

It is quite likely that ready-made missiles were used in these launches and that Iran lacks the capability to build new ones. But even this is not definitively known.

In any case, this launch demonstrates that, despite allied strikes, Iran was able to preserve important missile facilities.

The second reason is that these launches confirmed the fears of the US, which they had expressed since the 2000s.

Americans believed that Iran was developing and building intermediate-range missiles (from 3,000 to 5,500 km). This conviction formed the basis for the construction of the European missile defense system by the US and NATO.

However, until now, confirmation of these assumptions was a weak point in the US argumentation.

Now Americans can say that Iran has used a missile in combat that can threaten European NATO members.

Meanwhile, the assertion that Iran lacked such missiles was one of Russia's arguments against the construction of the European missile defense system.

This probably does not play as important a role in the relations between the two countries as it did before, but it gives Americans more reason to say that the Euro-ABM was not aimed against Russia, as believed in Moscow."

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