How many Belarusians voted for Lukashenka in previous elections? Classified state survey figures published

Alexander Lukashenka. Photo: Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

The independent Belarusian Sociological Group presented a study "Trust in an Era of Change: The Electoral History of Belarus (2001-2025)". Its value lies in the fact that it is the first time the results of classified studies conducted by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus — regarding trust in Alexander Lukashenka and the level of his electoral support — have been published.

Recall that state sociologists constantly conduct sociological surveys measuring the "level of trust" in various state bodies — for example, courts, police, military. Trust in Alexander Lukashenka is also measured. The results of such studies do not become publicly available.

Hennadz Korshunau, who headed the Institute of Sociology from 2018-2020, is part of the Belarusian Sociological Group. Therefore, it is clear that he might have retained archival data of the institution.

What should be understood: before Korshunau — an honest sociologist who was forced to resign in September 2020 — the institution was headed by KGB officer Georgiy Yavelkin (2000-2008) and ardent communist Igor Kotlyarov (2008-2018). It cannot be ruled out that they might have adjusted the research results to be more favorable to the authorities. On the other hand, if the results of such surveys were not published, Lukashenka's supporters might have been interested in obtaining a more-or-less realistic result, albeit taking into account the level of fear in society.

Read: "70% is not enough, let's make it 90%." How Shpileuskaya demanded Korshunau change the results of a sociological survey

2001

In that election, the Central Election Commission drew 76% for Lukashenka, while the sole opposition candidate Uladzimir Hancharyk had 16%.

During the Institute of Sociology's survey, 45% of respondents said they voted for Lukashenka, 11% for Hancharyk. In addition, almost half of those surveyed abstained from answering — 13% said they were against all, and 30% "had no answer."

2006

According to the calculations of the Institute of Sociology, Lukashenka's trust level was 50% (the month in which the study was conducted is not specified).

Official calculations by the Central Election Commission: Lukashenka — 83%, Milinkevich — 6%, Kazulin — 2%.

However, the Institute of Sociology's survey gave different results for votes in the election: Lukashenka — 63%, Milinkevich — 6%, Kazulin — 1%. But again, a gigantic number of people who did not want to answer state sociologists was recorded — 26%. And another 3% were against all.

2010

Detailed data for 2010 is only available in the NISEPD study by Professor Oleg Manaev, but there is no trust in it, so there is no point in analyzing this information.

But Lukashenka's trust level, according to the Institute of Sociology's calculations, was 38%. Interestingly, a year later, in 2011, amidst the economic crisis, it dropped to 34%.

2015

Lukashenka's trust level this year was 42%.

However, during the state survey on who Belarusians voted for, unusual results were recorded.

According to the pre-election survey, 45% intended to vote for Lukashenka. Other candidates (including Tatsiana Karatkevich) had support at the level of statistical error — below 1%. But as many as 52% refused to answer the sociologists' question.

As a result, the Central Election Commission drew 84% for Lukashenka.

2020

Read: Official sociology: Lukashenka's trust rating in Minsk — 24%, Yarmoshyna's — 11%

According to the results of the post-election state survey, 21% voted for Alexander Lukashenka, and 33% for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. 11% stated they did not vote, and another 26% refused to answer the question.

Meanwhile, Lukashenka was assigned 80%, and Tsikhanouskaya — only 10%.

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