Lvovsky: Everyone who tried to create some counterweight to Tsikhanouskaya and her office quickly slipped into the margins
Economist Leanid Lvovsky named the main problem of Viktor Babaryka's headquarters — it will be difficult to sit in Europe and work for the «Belarusian swamp».
Leanid Lvovsky
The topic of Viktor Babaryka's headquarters' influence on democratic forces became one of the main ones in the new episode of the YouTube project «The Clock Is Ticking».
«The objective reality is that so far, everyone who has tried to create some counterweight to Tsikhanouskaya and her office, have quite quickly slipped into the margins. Perhaps this happens because Tsikhanouskaya's Office immediately occupies all the good positions. And therefore, if you try not to be with them, you have to take some bad position,» — noted economist and analyst Leanid Lvovsky.
At the same time, the analyst admits that with the release of Viktor Babaryka and Maria Kalesnikava, «it will be possible to change this, and they will be able to become an alternative center without falling into irrelevance anywhere.»
However, to achieve this, one must take into account the current situation:
«The problem with Babaryka's headquarters will be that, on the one hand, these are obvious heavyweights, these are the people because of whom 2020 began, because of whom many believed that changes were possible in Belarus. (...) But a lot has changed. And now it is difficult to understand what the goal-setting can be now. There will be no elections in Belarus tomorrow.»
As Lvovsky emphasizes, people followed Babaryka not because he was an ideal candidate, but because he offered the opportunity to change power here and now.
«In 2020, there were many opportunities, and Viktor Babaryka represented realistic forces. That is, the idea was that everything in Belarus could be changed right now. He might not have been the dream candidate for everyone who eventually came out to protest or went to vote, including for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. But it was the reality that change was possible, and then a democratic process would follow, we would figure things out, and so on.»
According to the analyst, during the revolutionary surge of 2020, the question «Whose Crimea is it?» was not acute: the priority was to change the regime, and other positions were to be discussed later, under democratic conditions.
However, now the situation looks completely different.
«Now we live in a world, rather, of dreams. In reality, it is difficult to change anything right now. There will be no elections tomorrow — except for elections to the Coordination Council — even the All-Belarusian People's Assembly cannot be penetrated.»
As Lvovsky notes, it is also necessary to consider the geopolitical conditions in which Belarus exists. Being in Europe, opposition forces are forced to declare a European path, which creates a dissonance with the sentiments within Belarus itself. And how to build communication with the population inside the country under such conditions, the analyst does not know.
«In the long term, it seems that we should go with Europe, but that means distancing ourselves from Russia. Distancing ourselves from Russia right now… — inside Belarus, this will probably sound like a very strange and not the most popular theory. And yet, sitting in Europe and working for the «Belarusian swamp» will also be difficult. These are big questions for which I have no answers,» — comments Lvovsky.
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