Lukashenka begins to realize the consequences of the destruction of the world order

Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenka, August 1, 2025. Photo: Gavriil Grigorov Sputnik Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Alexander Lukashenka helped Russia start and wage the bloodiest war of the 21st century so far. Back then he did not say, as he does today: "What is happening around us does not depend on us." On the contrary, he justified it with promises that Kyiv would be taken in "three or four days" and inventions that "an attack on Belarus was being prepared" from Ukraine.

"Sometimes it's not about laws" — he declared back in 2020. This is his political philosophy.

Like Putin, Lukashenka most likely thought that the West was naturally incapable of acting similarly.

The Belarusian leader mocked the calls from Biden and von der Leyen to preserve the "rules-based order." He frothed at the mouth proving that there were no rules. Only now has he realized that they did exist — changeable, but they did.

When Assad collapsed, propaganda blamed it on his own faintheartedness, not on signs of Russia's dwindling resources. Now, when America in Caracas showed what a "special military operation" should look like, it became clear that Russia and China are being shown their place. In Minsk, as in the Kremlin, they declared the creation of a new world order, but in reality, Moscow and Beijing proved incapable of influencing events even in countries as important to them as Venezuela.

Lukashenka groaned about "defenseless man."

Lukashenka calls the situation "confusing and unclear" because he does not understand how the West will now behave with Russia, into total dependence on which Minsk has driven itself by its own will.

Because, indeed, the US "hasn't even started" to pummel Russia and China. But after Venezuela, the tanker and the intention to allocate 1.5 trillion dollars for defense in 2027, it became clear: they might just start. They will be ready to start. Or to respond.

Lukashenka has begun to realize the consequences of the destruction of the world order as we knew it before 2022. However, there are no signs yet that he is capable of jumping off the Russian tanker, onto which he willingly boarded and which is heading to one hell or another.

Can Lukashenka, like the leadership of Italy in 1943 and Romania in 1944, change sides in the conflict? Nothing indicates this. "What is happening around us does not depend on us" — this admission shows his current state of mind.

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