"What happened to Lithuania?" Brussels puzzled by Vilnius' ambiguous position towards Minsk

Photo: Thierry Tronnel / Sygma via Getty Images

The EU is implementing a series of sanctions against Belarus in response to the regime's repression, human rights violations, and its role in supporting Russia's military aggression against Ukraine. These restrictions are expected to be extended until February 28, 2026.

Recently, the US has softened its approach to Alexander Lukashenka's regime and, in exchange for the release of political prisoners, announced the lifting of sanctions against Belarusian airlines and fertilizers.

However, Brussels emphasizes that the EU does not intend to follow the same path, as Minsk has not changed its behavior.

"In fact, this [lifting of US sanctions] yields some tangible humanitarian results, as many opponents, including Maria Kalesnikava, have now been released. But it would be very naive to assume that this could lead to any changes in the regime in Belarus or to closer relations between Belarus and America, as Belarus itself will not turn away from Russia," Maria Martišūtė, an analyst at the European Policy Centre (EPC) in Brussels, told LRT.

"What I hear in Brussels is quite the opposite. I think the EU intends to further strengthen sanctions against Belarus."

Diplomats are also optimistic about the extension of EU sanctions against Minsk, although some countries are seeking certain relaxations — for example, opening airspace for Belarusian airlines and similar measures.

"To my knowledge, both Hungary and Slovakia are demanding certain concessions. I'll say even more – there's a short list of oligarchs that these states are trying to remove from the list of sanctioned individuals. And what is this, if not corruption, political corruption?" Petr Auštrevičius, a member of the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs, indignantly told LRT.

Petras Katynas, a sanctions expert from another analytical center working in Brussels, RUSI, noted that the United States, even while lifting some sanctions against Belarus, is not pressuring Europeans to do the same.

"So I think, most likely, the situation is this: if I had to bet money, I would say that EU sanctions will remain. Whether they will be tougher — again, it's hard to say," he commented to LRT.

Nevertheless, Martišūtė expects that in February a decision will be made not only to extend but also to strengthen sanctions: "Especially as long as Belarus supports Russia's war against Ukraine, as long as it puts pressure on neighboring countries with the help of migrants, as long as airspace violations continue — both through GPS signal jamming and the use of balloons."

After the autumn attacks by contraband balloons, Lithuania managed to achieve the introduction of an additional criterion for hybrid threats against Belarus, which would allow the application of EU sanctions. However, there is currently no clear position from Lithuania, even though the operation of Vilnius Airport was again disrupted by contraband balloons just recently. Moreover, some Seimas decisions are stuck, Lithuanian politicians have started talking about a possible dialogue with Minsk, and Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has announced her departure from Lithuania.

"It's no secret that in Lithuania, there's genuine confusion not only in foreign policy but also in many other sectoral policies. Indeed, as people say, the right doesn't know what the left is doing, and vice versa. And I must say that such a confused Lithuanian policy – without a clear line and clear goals in foreign policy towards third countries – has already been noticed in Brussels," Auštrevičius stated.

"Experts working on these issues ask us about it. They express, I would say, even surprise: what happened to Lithuania?"

The MEP himself believes that a chain of hidden steps, forming a single line, leads to a dialogue with Alexander Lukashenka's regime.

At the same time, he noted that he sees no problem with extending EU sanctions against Belarus, as Lithuania has already expressed support for it, however, "if we change our position, that would truly be a slap in the face."

EPC analyst Martišūtė also notes that Lithuania is sending an inconsistent signal to Brussels.

"We seem to want tougher sanctions, but at the same time — also to initiate dialogue. This really doesn't look very serious," she said, adding that there are plenty of countries in the EU that would like to start a dialogue and end the isolation not only with Lukashenka but also with Vladimir Putin.

"I think a certain exchange of information with the Lukashenka regime is possible, but only by exerting economic pressure can we ensure that the threats emanating from Belarusian territory decrease or stop altogether. Therefore, even tougher measures could be adopted," Martišūtė concluded.

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