New Satellite Image Likely Captured 'Oreshnik' Complex Vehicles Near Krychau

On the morning of December 30 last year, the Belarusian and Russian defense ministries demonstrated a video showing what was purportedly the "entry into combat duty" of the "Oreshnik" missile system in Belarus. However, as experts noted, the footage only showed 3 technical support vehicles and one security vehicle.

A few days before the official video's publication, American analysts in nuclear armaments and military infrastructure, based on satellite images, named the former military airfield "Krychau-6" as a possible location for the "Oreshnik" complex. The group included researchers associated with The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (USA), as well as independent open-source intelligence analysts.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty then verified these conclusions and compared them with official footage. It turned out that the official video could indeed have been filmed at the abandoned military airfield near Krychau. This is evidenced by the complete match in the placement of buildings in the official footage and in the satellite images obtained over the past six months. Urgent construction here began in August 2025, for which a local private charcoal production enterprise was demolished. By 2026, several new buildings were erected here, and the railway tracks and station underwent complete reconstruction.

Among the most notable changes since the start of construction work on the territory of the former "Krychau-6" airfield is the construction of a central facility on the former runway. It resembles a small military town, enclosed by a fence. In the center is a parade ground, where, presumably, some footage from the official video of the Russian and Belarusian defense ministries was filmed.

In the satellite image from February 9, 2026, within the central military town, 6 vehicles can be seen that may belong to the "Oreshnik" missile system. Their size and proportions correspond to the size of the equipment previously shown by the defense ministries, but the exact type of vehicles cannot yet be determined, as higher quality images are needed for this.

Павялічыць

Two hangars are being built for all six vehicles; shadows from metal structures above them are visible in the image. One, smaller, is for three vehicles of one type, and the second, larger and with space for a fourth vehicle, is for three vehicles of another type.

American open-source intelligence and satellite imagery analyst, Decker Eveleth, an employee of CNA Corporation — a research center in US defense and national security — wrote on social media platform X that the new satellite image published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty "likely shows at least two, possibly three, objects that could be launch vehicles." He also noted that the placement of potential launchers and support vehicles in an open area, while hangars are still being built around them, indicates a high tempo of deployment.

Russian expert in strategic armaments, Dmitry Stefanovich, clarified that, judging by the images, one can speak of a division or a launch battery of the Strategic Missile Forces.

The image from February 9, 2026, also shows that near the central military facility, about 25 military vehicles of various sizes and types have appeared, several earthen mounds, and a building of yet unclear purpose. On the perimeter of the military town, 4 towers of currently unknown purpose can be seen.

Павялічыць

Ivan Kyrychevsky, a military expert on armaments for the Ukrainian publication Defence Express and a serviceman of the 413th Raid Unmanned Systems Regiment, noted in a comment to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that satellite images may indeed show vehicles associated with the Russian "Oreshnik" missile system, but draws attention to an important nuance:

“The fact that Russia is deploying military infrastructure in Belarus for the placement of the "Oreshnik" missile system is a fact. The fact that there are already individual components there to ensure the operation of "Oreshnik" medium-range ballistic missiles is also a fact. However, it cannot be ruled out that the Russians might be creating fake military positions this way. And this could be one such fake position.”

Павялічыць

Still from the video of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus on the "Oreshnik" missile system entering combat duty in Belarus. The image shows vehicles similar in size to those in the satellite image.

As an example of illogical, in his opinion, elements of the military facility's infrastructure near Krychau, he cites the hangars visible in the satellite image, which are being built next to each other and immediately for several vehicles of the missile system. The expert believes that such a concentration of equipment could lead to its simultaneous destruction if attacked.

At the same time, Kyrychevsky believes that the creation of both false and camouflaged real combat positions could be part of a long-term plan and a criterion for Russia's preparation to deploy a full missile regiment with at least nine launchers in a few years.

“At the same time, Russia may gradually begin deploying counter-sabotage units and special service units in Belarus, without which the placement of such weapons is impossible. Russians hide and guard such mobile launchers like the apple of their eye even on their own territory,” the expert notes.

The "Oreshnik" is a Russian mobile medium-range missile system, believed by experts to be based on the previously developed "Yars" intercontinental missile. Due to a reduced number of booster stages, the "Oreshnik" is smaller in size and has a shorter engagement range — about 5,000 kilometers. Russia might have first used a missile from this complex on November 21, 2024, during an attack on the Pivdenmash enterprise in Dnipro, eastern Ukraine. The enterprise was damaged at the time, and people were killed and injured in the city.

Павялічыць

Launchers of the mobile ground-based Yars missile system during departure from its permanent deployment point in the city of Teykovo. Preparation for the military parade on Red Square in Moscow, May 9, 2020.

The possibility of deploying the Russian "Oreshnik" missile system in Belarus was publicly announced at a meeting between Putin and Lukashenka at the end of 2024. The specified timeframe was the second half of 2025. The decision to deploy the complex in Belarus was allegedly made in response to a request from Alexander Lukashenka. At the same time, according to him, Lukashenka set a condition for Putin that targets would be determined "in Belarus, not by Russians."

A statement that Belarus would allegedly be able to independently determine targets for the "Oreshnik" complex appeared in the media this December after an interview with Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin on a Chinese TV channel. However, on the same day, the Russian state news agency TASS annulled this material, stating it was erroneous.

In the footage of the "Oreshnik" missile system entering combat duty and the honor guard formation on the parade ground, demonstrated by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus on December 30, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty did not observe a single Belarusian serviceman. Among the flags raised at the ceremony was only one Belarusian state flag and three Russian flags: the state flag of Russia, the flag of the Russian Ministry of Defense, and the flag of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces.

The official event on the podium was led by an unnamed Russian lieutenant colonel; as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty later found out, he could have been Russian serviceman Roman Ostravushko. In 2021, he was the commander of a missile division of the 54th Missile Division from the city of Teykovo.

The 54th Missile Division belongs to the Russian Strategic Missile Forces and is located approximately 200 kilometers northeast of Moscow. Russian state media has repeatedly referred to the Teykovo Missile Division as part of the Russian Federation's "nuclear shield." The unit is equipped with "Yars" intercontinental ballistic missile systems.

• 0
• 1
• 2
• 1
• 1
• 0
• 7
• 0