Usau called the permission for Pochobut's return an operation by the Belarusian authorities
And did the new round of negotiations with the Americans in Minsk, which is soon to take place, influence this? Political scientist and member of "Volnaya Belarus" Pavel Usau reflected on this on the air of "Belsat".
“I think that everything we see around Andrzej Pochobut is a well-thought-out, no doubt, prepared ideological operation by the authorities. They were preparing for his return, perhaps anticipating such a return,” said Pavel Usau.
Usau agrees that one of the factors for Pochobut's successful return to his homeland could be the visit of US representative John Kohle to Minsk, which is expected soon: “This should also be taken into account. Of course, Minsk is absolutely not interested in escalation.”
At the same time, the "Belsat" interlocutor is convinced that if the authorities saw Pochobut's arrival as a threat to themselves, they simply would not have allowed him in, for example, by annulling his passport. Wittingly or unwittingly, the activist became a participant in Minsk's game with Warsaw, as his fate is certainly being discussed by the Belarusian and Polish sides, Usau emphasized.
“Official Minsk was interested even earlier in the development of these formal-informal contacts with the Polish side with the aim of de-escalating relations, possibly softening communications, and returning some platforms for further discussions. In other words, we see a complex process that is generally built into Minsk's desire to create some space for communication not only with Warsaw, but also with the European Union.”
Pavel Usau also noted that the "privilege" for Pochobut, who freely entered Belarus and, apparently, will leave in a week, does not indicate liberalization:
“Do not think that this is some kind of thaw and a change in the internal political situation; nothing radically and fundamentally has changed in Belarus, and nothing will change in the near future, and this must be understood. Pochobut's situation is completely different. This is a well-known figure whose return propaganda and other institutions of Lukashenka's government will use to promote their narratives. Unfortunately, this will not affect the fates of ordinary people in any way.”
Calls for Belarusians to return to their homeland, referencing Pochobut's story, are manipulation, because repression in the country does not stop. The only thing that could work here is an amnesty and the closure of all criminal cases initiated in connection with the events of 2020-2022, Usau stated.
Then, according to him, many Belarusians would return, but now “no conditions for return exist and will not exist in the near future.”
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Таксама на тыдзень. Ці на дзень.
Ці можа нехта з яго каманды паедзе... Касцюгова да мамы?
Усаў фармулюе 3 розных сцвярджэнні:
1. «Афіцыйны Мінск быў зацікаўлены яшчэ і раней у развіцці вось гэтых кантактаў фармальна-нефармальных з польскім бокам з мэтай дээскалацыі стасункаў».
Ад зацікаўленасці пераскоквае (без доказаў) да таго, што яна нібыта праявілася, і нават ў "комплексным працэсе":
2. «То бок мы бачым комплексны працэс, які ўбудоўваецца агульна ў жаданні Мінску стварыць нейкай прасторы для камунікацыі не толькі з Варшавай, але таксама і з Еўрасаюзам».
А калі працэс комплексны, то і ў гісторыі з Пачобутом абавязкова павінна быць (па Усаву) усё прадумана:
3. «Я думаю, што ўсё, што мы бачым вакол Анджэя Пачобута, добра прадуманая, не трэба ў гэтым сумнявацца, падрыхтаваная ідэалагічная аперацыя з боку ўладаў».
І тут непрыгожае абагульненне "ўсё, што мы бачым вакол Пачобута", то-бок, і дзеянні польскага боку, і самога Пачобута.
Як абвінаваціць у саўдзелу ў ідэалагічнай аперацыі, амаль "агентуры", тыпа прама не сказаўшы тое.